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Feb 25 - 09:55 AM

GBP: Most Of The Positives In The Price; Several Downside Risks Next 3-6Months - Credit Agricole

By eFXdata  —  Feb 25 - 08:57 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research and flags many downside risks through end of Q2.

"We see several important GBP downside risks in the next 3M-6M: (1) the UK vaccine advantage could disappear as soon as Q2 as more countries embark on vaccine rollouts; (2) the BoE can try to push against further tightening of the UK financial conditions; and (3) the UK economic rebound in H2 could be hampered by a weak domestic demand on the back of surging unemployment and business spending, curbed by post-Brexit uncertainty and the risk of Indyref 2.0 in Scotland," CACIB notes. 

"The latest GBP price action led us to upgrade our FX outlook earlier this month. That said, with many positives in the price and with many downside risks ahead, we expect further gains only in H221 and beyond," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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