CIBC Research reviews today's Canada jobs report for the month of September.

"Canadian employment slumped again in September, with the unemployment rate ticking up slightly as new US tariffs took hold. The 68K decline in employment was in stark contrast to consensus expectations for a modest 10K rebound, and followed a 42K drop in the prior month as well. Data volatility appears to have been the main cause of the decline, with a 35K reduction seen in education services which often exhibits volatility around the start of new school years. However, the 13K decline in manufacturing employment could be a sign that new US tariffs are taking a toll. Through the monthly volatility, the 6-month average employment growth now sits at just 9K. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.5%, which was in line with the consensus forecast and was prevented from rising further by a reduction in the participation rate. Wage growth for permanent employees remained only modest at 2.3%, despite accelerating slightly from 2.0% in the prior month.

"Overall, while the weakness in today's employment data is likely more a reflection of data volatility than the impact of new US tariffs, it does support our call that the Bank of Canada will remain patient and keep interest rates on hold at the two remaining meetings this year," CIBC adds.