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Sep 16 - 12:12 PM
EUR/USD - COMMENT-Options Market Sending Post-Fed EUR/USD Clues
First appeared on eFXplus on Sep 16 - 06:55 AM

The forward-looking nature of the options market can offer some useful insight into impending events, as it did before last week' European Central Bank decision .
Option dealers are primed for a pick-up in spot volatility from the Federal Reserve, as they were for the ECB, although it's expected to be a more subdued reaction by comparison.
There's less demand for shorter-dated expiry implied vols, and the risk premium being added to the contracts is a lot less than those seen pre-ECB, albeit still higher than the usual levels.
Implied vols along the rest of the curve have been marked down toward long term lows since the ECB, reinforcing the view that easier Fed policy is already priced in and unlikely to force any rapid directional moves in spot.
Risk reversals reinforce that - there is no implied vol premium for either EUR puts or calls (downside over upside strikes).
Some dealers erred toward further gains after the ECB , but those trades have petered out since.

EURUSD implied vol: Click here

EURUSD risk reversals: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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