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Nov 01 - 12:55 PM

AUD: RBA In Focus; Recent Outsized AUD Gains Built On Shaky Foundations - MUFG

By eFXdata  —  Nov 01 - 11:00 AM

MUFG Research discusses its expectations for tonight's RBA policy meeting.

"The RBA policy meeting will be closely watched to see how they adjust or abandon YCC, and push back more strongly against early rate hike expectations. While we can anticipate the RBA bringing forward rate hike plans from the current guidance for no hikes before 2024, it is one hell of a long shot to expect the RBA to completely capitulate and start planning for hikes as soon as next year and joining the Norges Bank, RBNZ, BoE, BoC and Fed," MUFG notes. 

"As a result, we doubt that recent AUD strength can be sustained beyond the near-term. Market expectations for RBA hikes next year will be disappointed while the Fed starts to raise rates, and the negative growth impact from real estate weakness in China will become bigger weight on the AUD going forward as well," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary

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