eFX Apex
The Institutional-Grade Data Hub
- Plus: Discretionary Trades
- Edge: Sentiment Trades
- Alpha: Systematic Trades
- Apex: Full Big Data Stream
Bank of America Global Research maintains a tactial bearish bias on EUR/USD through Q2.
"We remain bearish on EURUSD in the near term, with our end-Q2 forecast at 1.14 and risks skewed to the downside. Persistently higher energy prices present stagflationary impulses globally and slower US-Euro area growth convergence," BofA notes.
The Fed-ECB divergence that our economists forecast for later this year creates an interesting backdrop: on the one hand, an ECB that is focused on protecting its inflation credentials, vs a Fed that prioritizes the labor market, could be a EURUSD tailwind. On the other hand, the picture gets clouded when looking at our economists' forecasts in real terms. Belly real rates have already moved against the EUR and could move further in case of higher global growth concerns or an ECB overreaction," BofA adds.