• Yen's rally to seven-month high weighs on dollar ahead of US CPI

• USD/JPY has dropped from 154.31 to 152.89, Tuesday, EBS data shows

• The yen's sudden surge is upsetting the carry trade faithful

• USD/JPY on course to end the week below the broken 154.78 Fibo, that would be bearish

• 154.78 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the 139.89 to 163.99 (April to July) rise

• Fin Min Katayama emphasized that Japan and the US remain aligned on FX policy

• BOJ commentary, nudge from Bessent cements Japan Sept rate hike

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Weekly Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD has traded a 17 pip range thus far Tuesday; 0.7206-0.7223

• 0.7223 is two pips shy of Monday's four-month high

• AUD supported by hawkish guidance from RBA's Hunter

• Markets currently see two-in-three chance of RBA rate hike on Sept 29

• China August iron ore imports up 0.4% vs expected decline

• Iron ore is Australia's single-biggest export earner

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 1.1623-35 EBS range on Tuesday

• The influential 200-DMA is 1.1634

• Traders have been betting on euro dropping since start July

• Probability of short covering would increase on any close over 200-DMA

• Potential buy signal if 21-DMA at 1.1612 rises over 200-DMA at 1.1634

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX option strikes expire at 10am New York/14:00 GMT on Tuesday September 8

• EUR/USD: 1.1560-70 (2.3BLN), 1.1585-90 (1.3BLN), 1.1600-10 (506M), 1.1620-25 (831M), 1.1630-35 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1650 (1.3BLN), 1.1670 (513M), 1.1700 (2.2BLN)

• USD/CHF: 0.8080-85 (273M), 0.8100 (583M). EUR/CHF: 0.9335-40 (390M), 0.9400 (180M)

• GBP/USD: 1.3460-70 (489M), 1.3555-60 (324M). EUR/GBP: 0.8600 (725M)

• AUD/USD: 0.7135 (1.8BLN), 0.7145-50 (880M), 0.7185 (362M), 0.7240 (511M)

• NZD/USD: 0.5810 (603M), 0.5850 (205M), 0.5895-0.5905 (242M)

• USD/CAD: 1.3720 (280M), 1.3785 (506M), 1.3800 (336M), 1.3825 (258M)

• USD/JPY: 151.00 (253M), 153.50 (710M), 154.50 (232M), 155.00 (793M)

• FX options wrap - USD/JPY roars again, EUR/USD sleepwalks into event risks (Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD doing little in Asia, 1.1623-34 EBS and in stasis

• Holding in tad lower 1.1584-1.1641 range established September 3

• Still capped in area of flat-ish 200-DMA at 1.1634, 100-DMA 1.1561 below

• In middle of now tapering 1.1408-1.1746 weekly Ichimoku cloud

• Massive nearby option expiries to again help contain spot action

• On 1.15 handle total E8.1 bln, 1.1600-25 E1.4 bln, 1.1630-1.1700 E6.4 bln

• EUR/JPY in almost free fall, 179.32 at Asia open to 177.86 EBS so far

• JPY bid broadly across the board as shorts continuing to pare positions

• EUR/JPY lowest since 177.37 Nov 10, 2025, Nov trough 175.75 on 5th

• EUR/GBP 0.8577-87, above 0.8548-71 daily Ichi cloud, below 0.8600 100-DMA

• Option expiries today include 0.8600 E725 mln, some between 0.8535-60

• EUR/CHF quiet, 0.9405-09 EBS, in higher 0.9374-0.9435 range since Sept 2

• Some option expiries today in 0.9335-40 window

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• Also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

EUR/USD:


EUR/USD nearby option expiries this week:


EUR/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Barton Gold rise 4.4% to A$1.18, their highest level since March 5

• Gold developer on track for best day since August 28, if gains hold

• Co receives approval of its environmental Scoping Report for its Tunkillia gold project from Department for Energy and Mining South Australia

• The report is prepared as part of the environmental approval process for a proposed mine or mining expansion

• Stock down 10.6% YTD

(Reporting by Jasmeen Ara Shaikh in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD flat Tue, trading subdued in run-off from U.S. Labor Day holiday

• Westpac Sep consumer sentiment index -5.2%, interest rates & fuel impacting

• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney later Tue

• AUD targeting 0.72825 50-month high, break above opens topside toward 0.7661

• Iran warns U.S. of retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf

• U.S. Aug PPI due Thur (poll +0.4% m/m) followed by CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)

• Range Asia 0.72156-23 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7277-82 0.7661
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY takes another dive yesterday as 155.00 pierced, stops galore hit

• Recent and past USD longs take cover en masse, carries reversed

• All took place in US holiday-thinned trading, USD/JPY 156.30 to 154.05

• More downside early Asia today, 154.31 to 153.80 EBS, bias still down?

• Japanese exporters especially in sell mode now, to cap rallies

• Most USD assumptions for fiscal year 155+, plenty done but more to go?

• Japanese importers on other hand can now take their time, in no rush now

• USD/JPY now lowest since 153.07 Feb 18, February trough 152.28 on 12th

• Tests towards January trough of 152.10 on 27th, 152.00 very possible

• Option expiries today include 153.50 $710 mln, some between 154.00-50

• US open today, moves to be eyed closely for direction going forward

• Seems no doubt more JPY buy-backs may be in store

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also ,

• Other markets , , ,

• And , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD +0.25% from Mon 1.35075 low as DXY slips in holiday impacted trade

• BoE MPC members (including Governor Bailey) before Treasury committee Tue

• UK finance minister Healy upbeat on economy despite tough decisions ahead

• Iran flags retaliatory attacks on U.S. oil & gas infrastructure in the Gulf

• UK Jul GDP estimate, manufacturing output, and trade balance all due Fri

• U.S. Aug PPI due Thur (poll +0.4% m/m) followed by CPI Fri (poll +0.4% m/m)

• GBP edging toward 1.3555 21-DMA, rally may accelerate on break above

• Range Asia 1.35399-42, support 1.3475 1.3274, resistance 1.3675 1.3870
GBP Daily 21/55/100-DMA


DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD continues to grind higher, +0.3% late Mon as buyers remain active

• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney Tue

• AUD targeting 0.72825 50-month high, topside wide-open towards 0.7661

• Iran threatens retaliatory attacks on U.S. energy infrastructure in the Gulf

• Aug U.S. inflation data will be pivotal, PPI due Wed followed by CPI on Thur

• Overnight range 0.7212-25 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7277-82 0.7661
AUD Weekly 52-WMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• EUR/USD edges higher, underpinned by JPY’s sharp gains vs USD

• Spot is retesting the top of the recent 100-200-day MA range at 1.1563-1.1634

• Despite the bid, EUR still faces downside risks from higher energy costs

• Event risk ahead - ECB policy decision (Thur), U.S. PPI/CPI (Thur/Fri)

• ECB hike is widely expected, focus shifts to projections and the statement

• U.S. inflation figures likely to set the overall tone for the pair
EURUSD daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

(corrects link in 4th bullet)

• EUR/GBP has traded a six pip range since the European open; 0.8685-0.8691

• Those parameters are within Friday's 0.85831-0.8597 range

• Far-right win leaves Germany's Merz shaken as AfD plots path to power

• UK finance minister Healey seeks to set out brighter vision before tough budget

• Four BoE MPC members appear before UK Treasury Select Committee Tuesday

• ECB rate hike expected Thursday. Another 6-3 BoE hold vote expected next week

EURGBP

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rose to 1.35445 during the London morning as dollar sank against yen

• 1.35445 is five pips shy of Friday's peak (scaled before NFP beat boosted USD)

• USD/JPY slid to EBS seven-month low of 154.05 during the London morning

• 1.3521 was Asian session high for GBP/USD (1.3482 was Friday's low)

• UK finance minister Healey seeks to set out brighter vision before tough budget

• UBS forecasts 25 bps Fed rate hikes in both September and December

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Sept 7 (Reuters) - USD/JPY bears could tighten their grip on this market if they manage to force a daily close below a broken Fibonacci level.

After recently hitting a four-decade low against the dollar, the tide appears to be turning for the battered yen as a host of factors smoke out brash traders who had spent years betting against the Japanese currency.

While USD/JPY has fallen through the 154.78 Fibo, a 38.2% retrace of the 139.89 to 163.99 (April to July) EBS rise, bears need spot to end trading this week below this broken level. That would increase the likelihood for a bigger drop to initially test the 151.94 level, a 50% retrace of the same 139.89 to 163.99 rise. Especially as the 14-week momentum reading turned negative last week.

However, if USD/JPY does not register a weekly close under the 154.78 Fibo that would hint at a bear-trap, which is set when a market breaks below a technical level but subsequently reverses and is usually a bullish sign.
Weekly Chart

(USD/JPY Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Yen's changing fortunes might finally be spooking the bears

• Takaichi's reflationist aide projects Bank of Japan rate hike in September

• USD/JPY has slumped from 156.30 to 154.05, on Monday, on the EBS

• Spot's third-largest daily drop of 2026, last Thursday, continues to weigh

• Fourteen-day momentum reading is negative, reinforcing the overall bearish market structure

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


Daily Chart


Correlation Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY drops sharply from 156.30 to 154.32 EBS

• Weekly ichimoku cloud spans 154.62-149.90

• Thick cloud represents an area of strong support

• Average USD/JPY rate f/c by Japanese firms for 2026/27 is 152.57

• Drop stretched below 154.87 base 20-week Bollinger bands

•
USD/JPY

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Last weeks sharp USD/JPY drop boosted FX option prices to late July intervention led highs

• Benchmark 1-month implied actually exceeded the late July peak at 10.5 after spiking from 7.15 to 10.65

• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals jumped 1.75 to 2.75 JPY calls over puts amid a surge in downside strike demand

• FX option prices/implied vols have eased as spot now consolidates, but they remain well above prior lows

• 1-month implied 9.55 and 1-month 25 delta risk reversals 2.4, while other expiry dates/contracts follow suit

• Related trade flows still outweigh that seen in other currency pairs in Asia/early London Monday

• Related - FX options wrap - USD/JPY warning as NFP fails to shift the dial
USD/JPY 25 delta risk reversals


USD/JPY FXO implied volatility

(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable has traded an 22.5 pip range thus far Monday; 1.35075-1.3530

• 1.3530 is also high water-mark since Friday's NFP data beat spurred low of 1.3482

• UK's new finance minister Healey makes his first major speech on Monday

• Healey will announce his first budget next month (October 28)

• UK house prices fall for first time since November 2023, Lloyds data shows

• CFTC data: net GBP short rose 11% to 49,575 contracts in week to Sept 1

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Australia's Green & Gold Minerals fall as much as 7% at A$0.130, hitting their lowest level since August 21

• Stock headed for its biggest pct fall since August 31, if trends hold

• Gold exploration and development company announces a pro-rata renounceable entitlement offer to raise about A$3.2 million

• Offer is priced at A$0.10 per share, representing a 28.6% discount to the stock's last close on September 4

• Company says proceeds from the offer will be used to fund exploration at company's existing projects and as general working capital

• Stock down 31.6% YTD, including session's moves

(Reporting by Shravya Marakini in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD flat Mon as investors ponder global inflation and interest rates

• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney Tue

• Futures pricing implies 67.4% chance of Sep 29 RBA rate hike

• Aug U.S. inflation updates critical, PPI due Wed followed by CPI on Thur

• Trump's attempted interference with Fed policy having limited impact

• AUD targeting 0.72825 50-month high, topside potential rises markedly above

• Range Asia 0.7197-11 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7215 0.7277-82
AUD Daily 21/55/100-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• GBP/USD down 0.1% in cautious Asian trading after closing unchanged Friday

• Undermined by robust U.S. jobs data on Fri which boosts Fed rate hike bets

• Expectations of a 25 bps Sep Fed rate hike jumps to 58.3% from 49.4% Thu

• U.S. PPI Thu, CPI Fri key; will determine whether Fed hikes rates on Sep 16

• UK has a busy Fri; July GDP, industrial and manufacturing output, trade due

• Parliamentary testimony of BoE Governor Bailey, other policymakers eyed Tue

• UK finance minister Healey seeks growth through decentralising power

• UK recruiters see first rise in permanent role hiring since 2022

• Strong support at 1.3470-75, then 1.3444-47 where 100 & 200-day MAs converge

• Resistance 1.3550, 1.3570, 1.3600; Friday range 1.3482-1.3549

• Asian range 1.3507-1.3521; U.S. markets closed for a holiday
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.1% Mon, edges towards key 0.7210-15 resistance zone in Asia

• Pair targets 0.72825 50-month high, topside potential rises markedly above

• Aug U.S. inflation updates now pivotal, PPI due Wed followed by CPI on Thur

• Trump threatens to stop trading with some countries unless FOMC cuts FFR

• Weekend U.S.-Iran flare up having limited early week impact

• RBA officials Sarah Hunter and Andrew Hauser speaking in Sydney Tue

• Range Asia 0.7197-11 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.7215 0.7277-82
AUD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY holding in lower range established Friday, range then 155.25-156.75

• Inside day a possibility in Asia today, so far 155.97-156.30 EBS

• Massive $1.1 bln in option expiries today at 155.75 likely supportive

• Also 155.95-156.00 total $477 mln, some smalls up to 157.00 $501 mln

• USD/JPY now holding below wide, 156.40-157.82 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Tenkan at 156.13 and kijun just below at 156.05

• IMM CTA increase in JPY shorts before fall last likely added to yen rally

• Japanese exporter likely to continue to sell rallies, importers buy dips

• Interesting twist in JGB-US Treasury interest rate differentials

• Diff in 2s narrow to @250 bps but that in 10s wider to @184 bps

• Could be quiet one in Asia ahead of the London, New York re-opens

• Tokyo likely to be quiet given weather-related transport problems, closures

• Middle East situation a concern, shifting central bank expectations too

• Strong US jobs report seen putting a September Fed hike back on table

• Related comments , , ,

• And , also , on IMM CTAs

• US markets , , ,

• On Middle East , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NZD/USD flat early Mon, as markets largely ignore latest U.S.-Iran flare up

• Trump threatens to stop trading with some countries unless Fed cuts rates

• U.S. Aug non-farm payrolls +162k (poll +56k), adds to Fed hike expectations

• Aug U.S. inflation data now critical, PPI due Wed, and CPI on Thur

• RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk speaks Wed, followed by Governor Breman on Thur

• NZD targets .5762 support, but break above 0.5907 21-DMA would shift outlook

• Range NZ 0.5880-879, support 0.5762 0.5627, resistance 0.5995 0.6012
NZD Daily 21/100/200-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)