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May 15 - 12:55 PM

BofA: Insights from May Global Fund Manager Survey; USD Still One of the Most Crowded Trades

By eFXdata  —  May 15 - 10:45 AM

Synopsis:

Bank of America's May Global Fund Manager Survey reveals a surge in bullish sentiment, the highest since November 2021, driven by expectations of imminent rate cuts and resilient economic outlooks. However, vulnerabilities remain due to potential stagflationary pressures.

Key Points:

  • Economic Optimism: Majority of fund managers anticipate rate cuts in the second half of the year, with a prevailing belief in avoiding a recession. Cash levels have dropped to a three-year low at 4.0%, and stock allocations are at their highest since January 2022.
  • Macro and Policy Expectations: There is a notable shift in expectations with a decrease in global GDP and earnings predictions since September 2023, amidst growing pessimism about the US economy. Yet, 78% dismiss the likelihood of a recession, favoring a "soft landing" scenario.
  • Crowded Trades and Risks: The survey identifies "long Magnificent 7" as the most crowded trade, followed by "long US dollar" and "short China equities." The primary concern for investors is higher inflation, seen as the top tail risk, followed by geopolitical tensions and economic downturn risks.

Conclusion:

While the current sentiment among global fund managers is markedly bullish, reflecting strong expectations for policy easing, there remains a cautious outlook towards potential economic challenges. The anticipation of lower bond yields and multiple Fed rate cuts within the next year underscores a complex investment landscape where inflation and government policy responses will play critical roles.

Source:
BofA Global Research

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