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Jun 30 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - Massive Options Could Dictate EUR/USD Path This Week

By Richard Pace  —  Jun 30 - 04:52 AM

June 30 (Reuters) - The hedging flows related to soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a significant effect on the underlying currency pair, so traders should be aware of some huge EUR/USD strike expiries this week.

These option hedging flows will typically neutralise exposure to the currency pair to leave the focus on FX volatility, with the net effect creating a tendency for the currencies to be drawn toward the strike, and often trade around it, as the expiry draws closer. This is more common when the strikes and subsequent hedging flows are larger and when there is a lack of any other catalyst to influence the market.

The largest and closest strikes to the current EUR/USD spot price for Monday's 10 a.m New York (1400 GMT) cut expiry are at 1.1700 on 2.4 billion euros and 1.1750 on 1.7 billion euros, with many more either side.

Tuesday's largest strike expiry is 1.1700 on 4.3 billion euros, with 1.3 billion euros at 1.1650, 1.4 billion euros at 1.1750 and 2.8 billion euros at 1.1800.

Wednesday's largest strike expiries are at 1.1650 on 2 billion euros, 1.1675 on 1.5 billion euros, 1.1700 on 2.9 billion euros, 1.1725 on 1.5 billion euros and between 1.1795-1.1800 on 2.4 billion euros.

Thursday has 1.1600 strike expiries on 5.6 billion euros, 1.1620-25 on 2.7 billion euros, 1.1650 on 1.3 billion euros, 1.1700 on 2.8 billion euros, 1.1750 on 1.7 billion euros, 1.1775 on 2.2 billion euros and 1.1800 on 5 billion euros.

Thursday will see the release of the monthly U.S. jobs data for June as the U.S. markets are closed for Friday's July 4 holiday. With little to stir the FX market ahead of the data, consolidation is likely to remain anchored by the larger strike expiries.

Related comments - Month-end FX hedge rebalancing signals from banks

Are EUR/USD bulls running out of steam?
EUR/USD FX option strikes expiring between June 30 and July 4


(Richard Pace is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Source:
London Stock Exchange Group | Thomson Reuters

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