• USD/CHF is pressing into key resistance around 0.8170–0.8200 ahead of the Fed decision

• Broadly speaking, how the Fed decision unfolds will dictate the near-term direction

• With a hike fully priced, the bar for a further hawkish surprise is high, leaving USD/CHF vulnerable to a pullback

• A hold would represent the clearest downside risk for USD/CHF

• As seen following the Treasury buyback surprise, CHF would likely be among the primary beneficiaries

• In that scenario, renewed focus on the debasement trade could put broader pressure on the USD

• A hawkish hike could push USD/CHF through the 0.8170-0.8200 zone and onto fresh 1-year highs

• 100-week MA at 0.8223. Sustained move above here would open up 0.8350-75

• Related comment: Fed hiking cycles and the dollar
USDCHF daily chart

Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))