Sept 5 (Reuters) - The probability of EUR/USD falling to 1.05 for the first time since January will increase if the European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged next week and next month.

Doves are cooing for the ECB to keep rates unchanged on Sept.
14 after the Spanish and Italian August services PMIs both surprised to the downside and came in below 50 for the first time this year, and the French August services PMI was downwardly revised to 46.
Any figure below 50 marks a contraction in activity.

EUR/USD fell to a 12-week EBS low of 1.0742 on the back of the disappointing Spanish, Italian and French services PMIs (the Spanish services PMI was forecast at 51.5, with the Italian services PMI forecast at 50.5).

Markets currently see a 25% chance of the ECB raising rates next week and a 50% chance of an October hike. 0#ECBWATCH

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