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By Jeremy Boulton  —  Mar 01 - 05:00 PM
  • Demand for speculative assets like stocks and crypto has surged

  • Gold has been a popular gamble since October

  • Gold rocketed to a record high at $2135 in Dec becoming overbought

  • A correction that largely unfolded above 2k has followed

  • Gold has risen $1984 to $2057.29 since Feb 14 (Valentine's Day)

  • Rally is stretched 20-day Bollingers but more scope on weekly/monthly charts

  • Top 20-week Bollinger bands is $2084, peak monthly bands $2165

  • Targets above record peak are $2174, $2229 and $2299


Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Mar 01 - 04:34 PM

The Bitcoin recorded an impressive six consecutive bull closes on the monthly chart into the end of February 2024 but if history repeats itself the leading crypto currency could be in for a rough ride through the remainder of the year.

A marked acceleration in February saw the Bitcoin rally from $41,859 to $64,000 as big buyers stepped into the market.

A similar pattern on the monthly chart from October 2020 where a six-month BTC rally peaked at $64,895 in April 2021.
The pullback from the April 2021 high extended to $28,600 by June of that year.

If repeated in 2024 the coin could head back to levels under $30,000.
The BTC would have to fail this month for the pattern to potentially play out.

Monthly Ichimoku cloud twists also give warning of potential big losses.
The drop from $69,000 November 2021 record high gravitated towards a November 2022 $8,793-$10,065 twist.
There is a $36,061-$36,162 November 2024 twist, which could have a similar effect on the current rally.

A 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $15,479-$64,000 Nov.
2024 rally is at $38,739.


Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Justin Mcqueen  —  Mar 01 - 12:40 PM

Anyone wondering just how subdued FX markets have become lately can make good use of this statistic: EUR/USD is set to record its tightest weekly range since November 2019 at 70pips.
And, that begs the question: What will put an end to the rut?

This week’s inflation data from both the euro zone and U.S. had a minimal impact on central bank rate expectations, partly because rate expectations better reflect policymaker thinking.
Federal Reserve pricing now matches the dot plots and European Central Bank hawks believe rate markets are fairly priced nL2N3FE32D.

Euro zone inflation slightly surprised on the topside, though, the disinflation process remains intact.
That said, services CPI is still a cause for concern, having posted its largely monthly increase since April.
Meanwhile, the firm U.S core PCE print was in line with expectations.

As we look ahead to next week, there are several potential catalysts to spark volatility, including rate decisions from the ECB and Bank of Canada, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to testify before Congress and the latest non-farm payrolls report is also on the docket.

For EUR/USD, given the extremely narrow range, the same parameters apply, with resistance at 1.0880-97, marking the 55-DMA and February peak keeping a lid on gains.
Support at 1.0790-1.0800 puts a limit on pullbacks.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 01 - 01:30 PM


ING predicts the upcoming March Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting to have a relatively modest influence on the USD/CAD currency pair. Despite recent Canadian economic data outperforming expectations and a faster-than-anticipated decline in inflation, market adjustments for rate cuts in Canada seem more aligned with shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve rather than domestic factors. ING suggests that while there might be a slight dovish shift in the BoC's stance, significant dovish repricing is unlikely in March.

Key Points:

  • Canadian Economic Resilience: Recent data indicates the Canadian economy entered 2024 with stronger momentum, highlighted by better-than-expected fourth-quarter growth figures and a rapid decline in inflation rates.

  • BoC and Fed Rate Expectations: The recent unwinding of rate cut bets in Canada is attributed more to changes in Federal Reserve rate expectations than to Canadian domestic indicators.

  • Potential Dovish Shift at BoC: ING considers the possibility of a more dovish tone from the BoC, potentially opening up to rate cuts, though this may not dramatically alter the trajectory for the Canadian dollar due to its close correlation with Fed pricing.


ING anticipates the March Bank of Canada meeting to have a minimal impact on the USD/CAD currency pair, projecting stability in March followed by a USD-led decline starting in the second quarter. While there's a chance for a slightly more dovish BoC message, the significant influence of Federal Reserve rate expectations on Canadian rate cut bets suggests any domestic dovish repricing may be subdued.

ING Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Mar 01 - 12:35 PM
  • AUD$ firm in NorAm afternoon +0.54% at 0.6532; Friday Range 0.6535-0.6488

  • Support sub-0.65 holds for 3rd straight session after AU CPI slip Wednesday

  • Pair rallied off session lows after U.S. ISM data missed sinking U.S. yields

  • Despite rise, Fed rate cut odds steady, 80% odds for June cut; -82bp by Dec

  • AUD$ trades slight 0.6567-0.6487 range in week underscores mkt indecision

  • Res 0.6535 Friday high, 200/100-DMA at 0.6562, upper 30-d Bolli 0.6613

  • 100-DMA rising above 200-DMA hints at potential bid, after failures sub-0.65

  • Supt 0.6487 Fed 28 low, 0.6467 lower 30-d Bolli, 0.6443 2024 low Feb 13

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 01 - 10:45 AM


RBC outlines its outlook for USD/JPY, targeting the pair at 145 in Q2 2024. Despite a consensus shift towards expecting a significant USD/JPY sell-off, RBC remains cautious, citing the Federal Reserve's hesitance to cut rates and robust US economic momentum as key factors underpinning the pair. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) deliberations on exit strategies from ultra-loose monetary policies further add to the complexity, with market pricing indicative of a more aggressive BoJ tightening than previously anticipated.

Key Points:

  • Fed's Rate Policy: The Federal Reserve's cautious approach towards rate cuts, coupled with stronger-than-expected US economic performance, provides a bullish backdrop for USD/JPY.

  • BoJ's Tightening Prospects: Recent BoJ discussions signal a readiness to consider exit strategies, marking a significant shift in policy outlook. Market expectations now price in a 10bp hike by June and a full 25bp by the end of 2024.

  • Hedging Dynamics: The differential between hedging costs and yields on Japan's foreign asset stock remains elevated, potentially sustaining USD/JPY levels even as the Fed commences rate cuts.

  • Positioning Risks: USD/JPY is currently a popular long position, posing risks of volatility around BoJ policy announcements. RBC anticipates potential dips as opportunities to buy into USD/JPY.


RBC's analysis suggests a bullish outlook for USD/JPY, targeting 145 in Q2 2024 amidst evolving monetary policy dynamics in both the US and Japan. While the consensus leans towards expecting a depreciation in USD/JPY, RBC advises caution, emphasizing the impact of the Fed's policy stance and BoJ tightening discussions. Investors are advised to view potential pullbacks in USD/JPY as buying opportunities, with positioning and hedging considerations playing crucial roles in the currency pair's trajectory.

RBC Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 01 - 09:35 AM
  • Cable maintains 1.26 handle as market digests comments from BoE's Pill

  • BoE chief economist says first BoE rate cut "some way off" nL5N3FF527

  • Markets still expect first BoE rate cut on August 1 0#BOEWATCH

  • UK budget next week. Fed's Barkin: I still see wage, inflation pressures

  • US Fed ISM manufacturing index due at 1500 GMT; 49.5 is consensus forecast

  • 1.2614-1.2699 defines GBP/USD range this week (vs 1.2580-1.2710 last week)

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Mar 01 - 09:30 AM


Bank of America's quantitative models have triggered a bullish signal for GBP/CAD, particularly in anticipation of the upcoming Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting. This bullish stance is supported by the positioning model's derived Residual Skew, indicating a favorable outlook for GBP/CAD calls. The upcoming BoC meeting is expected to potentially set the stage for future rate cuts, contrasting with the UK's relatively high core inflation and the market's more conservative rate cut expectations in Canada for the first half of 2024.

Key Points:

  • Bullish GBP/CAD Signal: BofA's MAA positioning model indicates a short-term bullish signal for GBP/CAD, suggesting an uptrend supported by Residual Skew towards GBP/CAD calls.

  • BoC Meeting Expectations: The market anticipates the BoC might hint at upcoming rate cuts, possibly as early as April, though BofA's base case predicts the first cut in June.

  • UK vs. Canada Rate Divergence: The UK's core inflation remains elevated compared to Canada, leading to fewer rate cuts priced in the UK for the early part of 2024. This divergence aligns with BofA's Global rates team's recommendation to favor UK rates over Canada in the front end.


BofA's quantitative models suggest a bullish outlook for GBP/CAD, particularly in light of divergent monetary policy expectations between the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. The anticipation of dovish signals from the BoC contrasts with the UK's inflation scenario, underpinning the bullish GBP/CAD stance. However, unexpected developments in Canadian wage growth could pose risks to this outlook.

BofA Global Research
By eFXdata  —  Mar 01 - 08:30 AM


Société Générale highlights the limited trading range of EUR/USD in the recent year and the beginning of 2024, attributing the stagnation to a lack of monetary policy divergence among central banks. The discussion revolves around which central bank will initiate rate cuts first and the extent of such adjustments. SocGen forecasts the Federal Reserve to commence rate cuts earlier and more aggressively than the European Central Bank (ECB), projecting 75 basis points (bps) of cuts from the Fed compared to 50bps from the ECB. However, market expectations differ slightly, anticipating 75bps of cuts from the Fed starting in July and 93bps from the ECB, with the first full cut expected in June.

Key Points:

  • 2023's Narrow Trading Range: Last year's trading range for EUR/USD was notably narrow, reflecting a lack of significant monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB.

  • Central Bank Rate Cut Speculations: The ongoing debate in the financial markets focuses on which central bank will be the first to ease monetary policy and the magnitude of such easing.

  • SocGen's Forecasts vs. Market Pricing: SocGen predicts the Fed will initiate rate cuts before the ECB, with a more substantial total reduction. Market pricing slightly diverges, especially regarding the ECB's expected easing.

  • Potential for a Fed Hike: A serious consideration of a Fed rate hike could sharply decrease EUR/USD, but without such a scenario, a narrow trading range with a slight EUR upside bias is anticipated.


SocGen suggests that EUR/USD is likely to continue trading within a narrow range due to the lack of clear monetary policy divergence between major central banks. While SocGen predicts the Fed to lead with rate cuts, the difference in market pricing for the ECB's easing suggests a complex outlook for EUR/USD movements. Without the prospect of a Fed rate hike, traders should prepare for continued limited volatility in EUR/USD, with a minor bias towards EUR appreciation.

Société Générale Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 01 - 07:05 AM
  • Cable has traded a 26.5 pip range since the Ldn open; 1.2619 = session low

  • 1.2619 is 5.5 pips shy of Thursday's one-week low (1.2612 was Feb 22 low)

  • 1.2700 is key resistance level (offers pre-1.27 capped Monday-Tuesday gains)

  • BoE chief economist Pill is due to give lecture in Cardiff at 1400 GMT

  • Markets currently expect first BoE rate cut on August 1 0#BOEWATCH

  • US Feb ISM manufacturing index due 1500 GMT; 49.5 is consensus forecast

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 01 - 06:05 AM
  • AUD/USD has traded a 26 pip range thus far Friday; 0.6488-0.6514

  • 0.6487 was Thursday's two-week low. Iron ore falls for second straight week

  • Iron ore is Australia's biggest export earner. China mfg PMI 49.1, as f/c

  • 0.6531 (Thursday top) and 0.6550 are AUD/USD resistance levels beyond 0.6514

  • Citi went short AUD/NZD on Wednesday (post-RBNZ), with stop set at 1.0825

  • RBNZ deputy governor says policy needs to stay restrictive for some time

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Mar 01 - 05:30 AM
  • Falling daily tops but EUR/GBP still constructive

  • Recent highs and a 38.2% Fibo the bull targets

  • The high points providing an 0.8566 to 0.8578 resistance band

  • Daily momentum still with the EUR but RSI flat lining

  • Weekly action sideways just below a 0.8580 38.2% Fibo, off 0.8713-0.8498

  • Fourteen week momentum is negative

  • Cross leans bullish short-term but stronger signals needed

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Mar 01 - 04:05 AM
  • Cable has traded on a 1.26 handle since Monday (1.2699 was high that day)

  • Stops may be sheltering below 1.2600 (GBP/USD was last sub-1.26 on Feb 20)

  • 1.2614 was Thursday's one-week low, after drop from 1.2681 (intra-day high)

  • UK house prices rise for first time in over a year, lender Nationwide says

  • UK budget next week. US Senate approves bill to avert government shutdown

  • Trump tariff plans spur talk of inflation 2.0. Presidential election Nov 5

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 01 - 04:00 AM
  • EUR/USD outlook is mixed due to conflicting signals

  • In the middle of Feb spot failed under 1.0712 Fibo, setting up a bear trap

  • A bear trap is set when a market breaks below a tech level but then reverses

  • 1.0712 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 1.0448-1.1139 (Oct-Dec) EBS rise

  • The large upper shadow on the Feb 22 candle continues to limit the upside

  • There is interim resistance at Tuesday's 1.0856 high

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL2N3FE0PA

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Mar 01 - 03:00 AM
  • USD/JPY has scope for bigger gains to test 2023/2022 151.92/94 peaks

  • The long tail on Thursday's candle points to a rejection of the downside

  • Thursday's slump found support at 149.21, ahead of the broken 149.17 Fibo

  • 149.17 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the (Nov-Dec) 151.92-140.27 (EBS) drop

  • USD/JPY traded above the 149.17 Fibo for sixteen sessions in a row = bullish

  • EUR/JPY has seen a 162.15-162.75 range, on Friday, EBS data shows

  • USD/JPY Trader TGM2336. Previous update nL2N3FE0RZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Mar 01 - 02:00 AM
  • New recent low at 1.2614 Thursday

  • We have trailed our short stop to 1.2735 but maintain a 1.2535 target

  • We lower the stop again on a break below 1.2600

  • Fourteen day momentum has flipped marginally to negative

  • Mild corrective action early Friday

  • Daily RSI remains flat and neutral

  • Weekly cloud top continues to cap and monthly action remains tight

  • Bearish but with rebound risk Friday

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Feb 29 - 10:25 PM
  • EUR/USD opened -0.31% at 1.0804 after a whippy US session post-US PCE

  • Move lower Thursday was partly due to EUR/JPY selling as cross fell 0.80%

  • Price action partly reversed in Asia with the EUR/USD recovering 0.40%

  • EUR/USD moved up to 1.0820 heading into the afternoon

  • Resistance is at the 55-day MA at 1.0881 and last week's 1.0889 high

  • A break above 1.0900 should spark a short-term trend higher

  • Support is at the 21-day MA at 1.0790 which has held on dips

  • A close below 1.0790 opens up ore downside action

  • The key event later today will be EZ CPI for February

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 29 - 04:30 PM


HSBC maintains a short position on EUR/JPY, targeting a move towards 158.50, amid recent comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials hinting at a potential shift in monetary policy. BoJ board member Hajime Takata's recent statements, emphasizing the visibility of the price target and the need for flexible policy adjustments, have fueled speculations of policy changes, including ending negative interest rates and the Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework. These comments follow BoJ Governor Ueda's optimistic remarks on achieving the inflation target, underscoring a growing confidence within the BoJ regarding their inflationary goals.

Key Points:

  • BoJ's Policy Shift Signals: Takata's comments suggest the BoJ is contemplating steps towards exiting its ultra-loose monetary policy, hinting at potential changes in the upcoming meetings.

  • Technical Recession and Economic Data: Despite Japan being in a technical recession and facing a significant drop in production, the focus remains on the spring wage negotiations, which could influence the BoJ's policy direction.

  • HSBC's Short EUR/JPY Position: Based on the BoJ's evolving stance on monetary policy and the potential for wage growth acceleration, HSBC recommends a short position on EUR/JPY, with a target of 158.50.


HSBC's strategy to short EUR/JPY is aligned with the latest comments from the BoJ, indicating a possible policy shift that could strengthen the JPY. The anticipation of changes in the BoJ's approach, especially regarding the YCC framework and negative interest rates, coupled with the upcoming wage negotiations, presents a favorable backdrop for the JPY's appreciation against the EUR. Investors are advised to consider these developments when evaluating their positions in EUR/JPY trades.

HSBC Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 29 - 10:10 PM
  • +0.05% in a 1.2622-1.2634 range in Asia, with decent volume on D3

  • There is no major UK data, so the USD and risk appetite to lead sterling

  • US PMI and Consumer Sentiment, plus a slew of Federal Reserve speakers

  • A potentially volatile U.S. session could easily move the pound

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21-DMA's conflict as the 21-day Bollinger bands contract

  • Daily momentum studies crest/fall - daily charts show no significant bias

  • New York's 1.2613-1.2681 range is the initial support and resistance

  • A 1.2613 break would initially target a test of last week's 1.2579 low

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Feb 29 - 10:10 PM
  • AUD/USD opened flat at 0.6497 after whippy reaction to US PCE

  • After a quiet start it moved higher in Asia with AUD/JPY demand

  • AUD/JPY rose nearly 0.50% as the Nikkei hit a record high nL2N3FF01S

  • AUD/USD traded up to 0.6513 and is at session high into the afternoon

  • There was a muted reaction to China PMI -which were close to expectations nL2N3FF04B

  • AUD/USD resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.6520 and 10-day MA at 0.6534

  • A break above 0.6535 would likely shift pressure to the upside

  • Support is at the Feb 13 low at 0.6443

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Feb 29 - 08:40 PM
  • AUD/USD a few pips higher after China Feb Mfg PMI came in as expected @ 49.1 nAZN1L3QEO

  • China non-Mfg PMI for January improved to 51.4 from 50.7 in December

  • The Caxin MFG PMI will be out shortly and is expected to come in at 50.6

  • AUD/USD resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.6520 and 10-day MA at 0.6534

  • Support is at the Feb 13 low at 0.6443

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Feb 29 - 07:00 PM
  • Steady after closing down -0.3%, as the U.S. dollar bounced in New York

  • Yield spreads were unchanged, 10yr bund -6bp 2.404%, 10yr UST -6bp 4.252%

  • Economists believe the ECB will cut in June, but many variables remain

  • U.S. markets also price a June cut - focus swings to the stronger US economy

  • Charts - 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages and momentum studies conflict

  • 21-day Bollinger bands contract - signals show no significant bias

  • A close above 1.0915, 50% of the December-February fall would be bullish

  • 1.0789 21 DMA and the 1.0856 top in New York are initial support, resistance

    For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Feb 29 - 05:50 PM
  • AUD/USD opens unchanged around 0.6495 after retreating from 0.6531 high

  • US yields eased in wake of as expected US PCE - but recovered late session nL2N3FE45W

  • Second straight close below 0.6500 leaves AUD/USD vulnerable

  • Support at Feb 13 low at 0.6443 in focus after 5-day streak of lower highs

  • Resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.6520 and 10-day MA at 0.6533

  • Selling rallies while 0.6535 contains rallies is the favoured strategy

  • China in focus with official and Caixin Mfg PMI out today

  • China sentiment to have big impact on commodities and AUD

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Feb 29 - 03:00 PM


Credit Agricole recommends a short position on EUR/JPY through a 6-month put spread trade, anticipating potential policy shifts by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its March meeting. Despite Japan's weak industrial production data, the Japanese yen has seen strengthening influenced by verbal interventions from Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, and forward-looking comments by BoJ Board member, Hajime Takata, regarding Japan’s inflation and wage growth prospects.

Key Points:

  • Verbal Intervention by Japan’s FX Czar: Masato Kanda’s comments, aimed at supporting the JPY, have been categorized as level 6 out of 7 on Credit Agricole's verbal intervention scale, with 7 indicating the likelihood of imminent FX intervention.

  • BoJ Board Member's Optimistic Stance: Hajime Takata’s observations suggest that Japan's long-term inflation and wage growth targets are becoming increasingly achievable, hinting at a possible pivot in the BoJ's monetary policy stance.

  • Short EUR/JPY Position via Options: Credit Agricole positions itself for potential JPY appreciation against the EUR, especially with the upcoming BoJ meeting that might introduce changes to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.


With anticipation building around the BoJ's March meeting and potential policy adjustments, Credit Agricole sees value in adopting a short stance on EUR/JPY through options. The combination of Japan’s financial officials' verbal interventions and the BoJ's optimistic outlook on achieving its inflation targets provides a backdrop for potential JPY strength. Investors are advised to consider these dynamics when evaluating their positions in EUR/JPY trades.

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
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