• EUR/USD lurches lower to notch a fresh 13-month low at 1.1338

• USD strength remains the dominant driver, though positioning looks increasingly stretched

• Momentum signals flashing oversold for EUR/USD - RSI at 26, lowest since mid-March

• Fed hike now fully priced for September, lowering the bar for any dovish repricing surprise

• Near-term flow dynamics still USD supportive (corporate month-end), leaving scope for further upside

• That said, risk-reward is beginning to skew toward a tactical USD pullback from here

• Key levels: Support - 1.1291 (100WMA), 1.1200. Resistance - 1.1392-1.1409, 1.1500
EURUSD weekly chart


EURUSD daily chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))