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Feb 13 - 10:55 AM

EUR: No Lift-Off Despite All The Hawks - Credit Agricole

By eFXdata  —  Feb 13 - 09:30 AM

 Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the EUR outlook and adopts a neutral bias around current levels.

"The EUR has lost some ground of late to emerge as the worst performing European G10 currency last week. We think that the EUR depreciation reflects a combination of drivers. In the case of EUR/USD, we had the reassessment of the Fed outlook in the wake of Non-farm payrolls that boosted the USD rate advantage across the board and led to the renewed compression of the EUR-USD rate spread. Apart from that, the only important fundamental driver that has been weighing on the EUR was the renewed mild widening of some peripheral spreads as investors positioned for the start of ECB QT. Even in this case, however, the moves were very contained," CACIB notes. 

"Furthermore, our FAST FX model is suggesting that the EUR/USD short-term fair value should be closer to 1.08 than 1.07," CACIB adds. 

Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary


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