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Thomson Reuters
Oct 01 - 06:12 AM
USD/JPY - COMMENT-USD/JPY October Gains Are The Norm, Specs Pile In
First appeared on eFXplus on Oct 01 - 03:55 AM

Positive October seasonality, favourable fundamentals and a bullish technical outlook point to USD/JPY gains above the November 2017 114.73 peak.
USD/JPY has risen in 13 of the past 18 Octobers, including every year since 2011.
Speculative accounts have responded by piling into USD/JPY, anticipating further gains in coming weeks.
IMM data for the week ending Sept.
25 showed a futures market long an equivalent cash USD/JPY position of $9.4 billion, up from $7.1 billion the previous week and the biggest position seen since March.
The EBS flow data show net buying of USD/JPY, meaning the underlying speculative IMM USD/JPY long position may have grown since.
The dollar climbed against the yen after data last week reinforced optimism about the U.S. economy and backed the Federal Reserve's signal for steady rate increases next year .
The technical picture has been boosted by September's close above both the major 113.27 Fibonacci level, a 61.8 percent retrace of the 118.66 to 104.56 (December 2016 to March 2018) drop, and the 200-WMA, now at 113.21.

October Seasonality Chart: Click here

Weekly IMM Net Positions Chart: Click here

EBS Flow Chart: Click here

Long-Term Fibo Chart: Click here

Thomson Reuters IFR Markets


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