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Nov 08 - 09:55 PM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-USD, Charts Support Sterling As Brexit Endgame Nears

By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 08 - 07:50 PM

Sterling has gained 0.2% in Asia early Monday after a 1.5% rally last week, largely driven by USD weakness as risk sentiment proved resilient over the U.S. election. The dollar remains under broad pressure with S&P 50 e-mini futures up 1%, but Brexit and trade issues may impact the pound later this week.

Brexit negotiations resume this week, with both sides sounding optimistic nL9N2G0011nL1N2HU0AG, though key issues of the European Union's 'level playing field', UK 'sovereignty' and complex fishing rights remain unresolved nL1N2HT0BI.
The market believes a bare-bones deal will be struck, as a hard Brexit would be political poison, as the second coronavirus wave reverberates across Europe and the UK nS8N2GY09B.

Democrat Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election could complicate U.S.-UK trade talks, as there will be no trade deal if Brexit compromises Northern Ireland's 1998 peace agreement nL1N2HT0IW.

Technically, GBP/USD tests pivotal resistance at 1.3173, 61.8% of the September fall, and the 1.3177 October high, which capped on Friday. The strong close left a bullish outside week, which is an unusual positive signal, while momentum studies, 5, 10 and 21 daily moving averages track north.

A sustained 1.3180 break would open the door to the 1.3481 September top, while a close below 1.3057, 38.2% of the November rise, would undermine the topside bias.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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