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May 25 - 11:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Remains A Tale Of Two Economies

By Christopher Romano  —  May 25 - 10:10 AM

EUR/USD fell to a fresh two-month low with help from rising U.S. rates SRAU3 driving broad based dollar buying, and longs are likely to struggle as long as the economic growth disparity continues to widen in favor of the U.S.

Germany fell into recession as Q1 GDP slid to -0.30% from 0.0% as rising prices led consumers to pull back on spending.

German consumer sentiment is trending upward but remains negative as June GfK came in at -24.2 versus estimates of -24.0 but increased from May's -25.8.

Meanwhile U.S. weekly claims increased only modestly while Q1 GDP revised growth upward to 1.3% from 1.1%.
The Q1 core PCE component of GDP increased to 5.0% from 4.9%.

An economic research report from Indeed said the overall job market is still robust and that nominal wage growth remains strong although it is moderating at a slow pace Click here

The diverging economic paths helped increase the dollar's yield advantage over euro as U.S.-German 2-year spreads US2DE2=RR toward -158/-160 bps support.

A break of that zone could drive EUR/USD below 1.0700, which would trigger stops and bring the March monthly low into focus.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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