Nomura revises its outlook on the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy, projecting an extended period of steady rates following recent UK labor market data. The new Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal a tighter labor market than previously anticipated, with the unemployment rate lower and declining compared to the ONS's experimental series.
Unexpected Labor Market Strength: The updated LFS figures show an unemployment rate of 3.9% for Sep-Nov, 0.4 percentage points below the BoE's forecast of 4.3% for Q4 last year. This indicates a stronger labor market condition than both Nomura and the BoE had expected.
Implications for Monetary Policy: The tighter labor market dynamics bolster the case for the BoE to prolong its current stance on interest rates. The BoE's recent policy decision underscored the significance of labor market tightness in its decision-making process.
Nomura's analysis suggests that the BoE may opt to maintain interest rates at their current levels for a longer duration in light of the newly released LFS data, which points to a more robust UK labor market than previously believed. This adjustment in expectations aligns with the central bank's focus on labor market conditions as a crucial factor in its monetary policy deliberations.