Those that remain bearish on AUD/USD should be careful this month.
Historically, it tends to rise in April, especially if risk-sensitive AUD is helped by the rise in global stocks.
A seasonality study of AUD/USD's performance for each April since 2000 shows it has risen in 14 of the past 21 years, or 67% of the time.
In April 2020 it closed up more than 6%.
This could be partly down to FX traders having to buy back AUD/USD after its usual March drop.
AUD/USD found solid support last week ahead of the 0.7499 Fibonacci level, a 50.0% retrace of the 0.6990 to 0.8007 (November to February) rise.
That increases the likelihood that it will climb this month as its usually does.
There is scope for AUD/USD to make a bigger recovery to the 0.7849 March peak.
However, those that are long AUD/USD in anticipation for seasonal gains should be mindful that 14-week momentum turned negative last week.
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