Synopsis:

BofA highlights consistent seasonal patterns across key macro assets from June through August. Historical trends favor gold upside, modest DXY weakness, and lower US 10Y yields, suggesting a summer backdrop that typically leans dovish for USD and bullish for duration and precious metals.

Key Points:

Gold – Seasonal Tailwind:

• From June to August, gold has shown a consistent upward bias:

  • Since 1975: +1.6% average and +1.1% median return

  • Since 2015: +2.5% average and +1.1% median return

• Typical pattern: consolidation in June followed by rallies in July and August

DXY – Sideways to Slightly Negative:

• Dollar index tends to be rangebound and marginally negative over the summer:

  • Since 1972 and 2015, both average and median returns are modestly below zero

• Seasonal trend suggests limited upside in the absence of major catalysts

US 10Y Yield – Bias Toward Lower Rates:

• Treasury yields typically soften during summer months:

  • Since 1963: average move of -7bps, median -30bps

  • Since 2015: average move of -13bps, median -6bps

• Pattern favors duration trades during June–August window

Conclusion:

BofA’s seasonal analysis reinforces a familiar macro summer playbook: gold strength, slight DXY softness, and lower yields. These trends suggest a modestly risk-averse seasonal tone, favoring precious metals and fixed income over USD strength through late summer.