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Mar 29 - 11:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Faces Potential Fall Toward 1.1600

By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 29 - 10:37 AM

EUR/USD slipped slightly on Monday but held above recent 4-1/2-month lows near 1.1762-3 as it consolidated this month and quarter's declines and faced the prospect of more losses ahead.

Specs who bought ahead of last week's plunge below the 200-DMA might experience discomfort if Wednesday and Friday's ADP and non-farm payrolls live up to markets' optimistic expectations, potentially putting downside targets by 1.1600 in play.

IMM specs expanded their net long EUR/USD positions last week, likely hoping 200-DMA support would hold.
But it didn't at last Tuesday's 1.1855 position, tumbling below it the next two days to 1.1762, with rebound attempts since pitiful.

EUR/USD lost the support of ever-rising equity prices and remains weighed down by falling 10-year Bund-JGB yields spreads and divergent pandemic data.
U.S. vaccination supplies and inoculations nL1N2LO2QK are rising rapidly compared to sluggish progress and more lockdowns in the EU nL8N2LM312.

With the Biden administration about to fully reveal its next multi-trillion spending plans and the Fed not fighting rising bond yields, as the ECB caps local yields, EUR/USD looks likely to reach the November and September lows, the weekly cloud top and 21-week Bolli, all by 1.1600.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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