• EUR edging higher but still capped ahead of 1.1472 (post-NFP high)

• Market reluctant to chase topside - softer payrolls insufficient to sustain upside momentum

• Latest uptick not corroborated by EU–US rate spreads given no meaningful compression

• Sintra takeaways: growing ECB faction comfortable with holding rates steady

• Recent downside inflation surprises also raise the bar for any additional ECB tightening

• Macro backdrop remains a modest headwind for EUR

• Resistance: 1.1500, then 1.1580 (pre-Fed level)

• Support: 1.1350–60, with a deeper cushion at 1.1300–20
eu vs spreads


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))