Bank of America Global Research sees three potential bullish USD themes into H2: Middle East tensions (Hormuz), Fed (hawkish), and AI capex (hyperscalers).

"Hormuz Strait: Déjà vu all over again: Middle East tensions are rising, and oil has rallied roughly 20% from the post-MOU lows. While headline ping-pong may continue, there is a sizeable net-short oil position in the market and inventories remain low...," BofA notes.

"Hawkish Fed: Mission not accomplished: We hold a well out-of-consensus Fed call, still seeing scope for 3 hikes this year. Chair Warsh has recently reasserted his commitment to 2% inflation, and while June CPI came in soft, it will take several more like-prints to confirm a trend...

Hyperscalers: Do believe the hype: Finally, we see the AI theme as a net-positive for the USD, with ongoing cap-ex likely to keep relative growth supported," BofA adds.