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Mar 16 - 10:55 AM

USD/JPY: Could Easily Slide Below 130 N-Term On Risk-Off; Staying Strategically Bearish For 120 By Year-End - ING

By eFXdata  —  Mar 16 - 09:30 AM

ING Research maintains a tactical and a strategic bearish on USD/JPY.

"The return of financial crisis conditions has seen the Japanese yen return as the clear outperformer. The yen has normally played the role of safe haven currency during times like these because of Japan's large current account and net foreign asset position (years of surpluses). While Japan's current account surplus is smaller than it was because of the energy crisis, its large foreign asset position wins out. The yen will also be winning from the macro side too. The US banking crisis stands to tighten US credit conditions, hit US growth, and accelerate the timing of the Fed easing cycle. The same is true for other major central banks and, in effect, will drag  global interest rates closer to the rock bottom rates in Japan," ING notes. 

"USD/JPY could easily trade under 130 should banking sector conditions deteriorate again and recent events on both sides of the Atlantic only give us greater confidence in our year-end USD/JPY forecast of 120," ING adds. 

ING Research/Market Commentary


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