• USD/JPY fell after Tokyo inflation data gain, indicator for Japan CPI

• JPY spike higher shows the market is clearly wary of a BoJ hike Dec 19

• High frequency fair value models at TD show USD/JPY at 147.00

• So there is more downside potential for USD/JPY going toward BoJ meeting

• BoJ expected to hint prior to any hike to avoid repeat of July surprise

• Hike risk should limit USD/JPY recoveries near term

• Big technical support levels key to deeper USD/JPY declines

• Tankan quarterly business survey on Dec. 13 could be a decisive factor

• FX options gains highlight volatility risk, especially for U.S. NFP

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