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Jul 30 - 06:55 PM

MUFG: The Bar for a September Hike Looks a Bit Higher After Today's July BoE Decision

By eFXdata  —  Jul 30 - 04:00 PM

MUFG Research reviews today's July BoE decision.

"The BoE left rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected. The 6-3 vote split was tighter than anticipated with Mann joining the dissenters in pushing for a hike. That hawkish shift was more than diluted by messaging highlighting the strength of domestic disinflation. Across the MPC we see some daylight between the 3 dissenters and the rest and remain comfortable with our call for an extended hold," MUFG notes.

"The bar for a September hike looks a bit higher after today. Further ahead, we believe that second-round effects will ultimately remain contained given the soft macro backdrop. But the BoE will continue to watch for broader pass-through in the survey data, while the argument for pre-emptive tightening will strengthen with each new escalation in the Middle East," MUFG adds.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
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