• NY opened near 1.1540 after 1.1560 traded overnight, choppy trade in early NY

• Bears eventually took over as USD was bought, US yields

rallied

• Soured risk sentiment gave an added boost to the USD buying theme

• Gold, silver, stocks fell & USD/CNH gained due to risk-off trading

• EUR/USD fell to 1.1515, sat nearby late, traded down -0.29% in NY's afternoon

• Techs are mixed; RSIs falling but pair above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Ongoing consolidation of gains off the July 28 low is a bullish signal

• US June payroll report in focus, may be the catalyst for the next directional move
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

ANZ Research adopts a mildly negative bias on GBP/USD in the near-term.

"The BoE kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, in line with expectations. However, the voting split turned more hawkish, with three MPC members voting for a 25bp hike compared with two at the June meeting. Catherine Mann joined Megan Greene and Huw Pill in voting for tighter policy, reflecting concerns that higher energy prices could generate more persistent inflation and increase the risk of second-round effects. Recent inflation data have been somewhat more benign than expected. As a result, market expectations for close to two rate hikes by yearend 2026 appear excessive in our view," ANZ notes.

"Overall, we remain mildly negative on the GBP/USD and see 1.333 as the next key support level. Options markets also appear to offer an attractive opportunity to position for higher volatility. Despite risks stemming from ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, 1-month and 2-month at-the-money implied volatility recently fell to its lowest level in 10 years. We do not expect volatility to remain at such depressed levels and see value in buying downside GBP protection through put structures," ANZ adds.

• NY opened near 0.7045 after 0.7060 traded overnight, selling took hold

• Broad-based USD buying & rally in US yields weighed on AUD/USD

• USD got an added boost from gold, silver, copper, equity drops & USD/CNH gains

• AUD/UD fell to 0.7023, it neared 0.7035 late, traded down -0.35% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; monthly RSI rising, pair above 10-, 21-, 55- & 200-DMAs

• US July payrolls report Friday is a key risk for investors
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Bank of America Global Research previews the US July jobs report due on Friday.

"July payrolls: We expect payrolls to rise by a below-consensus (but still firm) 80k in July (private: 95k), up from 57k in June. Benign claims data and steady labor market indicators point to continued job growth, though we see some downside risks from summer hiring distortions, softer recent ADP readings, and a potential reversal in local gov't hiring. We expect the u-rate to round up to 4.3% as participation rebounds, though strong household employment could keep it at 4.2%," BofA notes.

"A report in line with our forecast would reinforce the view that downside risks to the labor market have largely faded, supporting our call for three hikes this year," BofA adds.

Despite recent challenges, sterling continues to show resilience against the U.S. dollar, holding firm near the 1.35 level. This robust performance comes as traders navigate a complex landscape of geopolitical uncertainty and upcoming economic data, particularly Friday's U.S. payrolls report.

Cable remains relatively well-bid, with support in the low 1.34s holding for now as markets await geopolitical news — most notably a possible Hormuz deal — which could have downstream effects on oil prices and global inflation expectations. Thursday's U.S. initial jobless claims data had a muted impact on FX and fixed income markets, suggesting the payroll figures may not immediately clarify the inflation outlook for the second half of 2026. With summer liquidity remaining light, GBP/USD traders are likely to shift their focus quickly to the U.S. and UK consumer price index reports scheduled for release on August 12 and August 19, respectively. However, similar liquidity and data-related constraints could also limit the market's reaction to those releases, potentially keeping GBP/USD anchored near current levels.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD finds support at 1.3418, the August 3 low, and 1.3403, the flat 200-DMA. A close below 1.3400 big-figure support is likely to have bears target the July 28 low at 1.3276. On the upside, bulls need a close above the August 3 high at 1.3505 and the July 15 high at 1.3556 to add to momentum and rally toward early-May highs near 1.3650.
GBP Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the latest wave of yen buying intervention.

"Relative to the 1998 and 2011 joint interventions, the misvaluations in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are less extreme currently, so the present joint intervention has started from a weaker point. The effects of the joint interventions in 1998 and 2011 faded after a few months as fundamentals took back control of FX markets. Likewise, if the fundamentals do not shift for the JPY, its current intervention gains could also fade," CACIB notes.

 "Without Japan’s leveraging of USTs, the combined US-Japanese reserves available for intervention represent less than three-quarters of the daily turnover in spot JPY, well below the levels of 1998 and 2011. With Japan making use of its USTs, this ratio rises to a more substantial 2.7 times, more than 1998 but still slightly less than 2011...We continue to forecast USD/JPY to average 162 in Q3 and 163 in Q4," CACIB adds.

• EUR/USD hit a fresh 1-1/2-month high, 1.1560 traded, sellers then emerged

• The pair turned lower, 1.1537 traded in Europe, NY opened near 1.1545, down -0.08%

• Firm US yields , USD buying & USD/CNH rally to 6.7518 weighed

• Daily RSI diverged on the high, could be a warning sign for EUR/UD bulls

• Rising monthly RSI, pair's hold above 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs are bull signs however

• US jobless claims, Q2 unit labor costs are data risks in NY's morning

• Investors more likely focused on tomorrow's July US payroll report though
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD hit 0.7060 overnight, sellers emerged, the pair turned lower

• USD buying, firm US yields , USD/CNH gains weighed on the pair

• 0.7037 traded in Europe, NY opened near 0.7045, pair was down -0.20% early

• Daily RSI turned down & AUD/UD held below the 50% Fib of 0.7277-0.6867

• Rising monthly RSI, monthly long legge doji gives bulls some confidence

• AUD/USD hold above 10-, 21-, 55- & 200-DMAs reinfoce bulls' confidence

• US jobless claims, Q2 unit labor costs are data risks in NY's morning

• The US July payroll report due Friday remains a key risk for investors
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable holds a neutral tone amid no fresh catalysts, keeping ranges tight

• Expect continued consolidation in lead up to Friday's payrolls, which will be the big driver for the next leg

• Risk-on sentiment has helped GBP lock in most of its recent upside

• However, conviction for a further breakout higher remains limited

• Levels to watch - Resistance: 1.3500, then 1.3550-56, while initial support sits at 1.3400
GBP daily


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• Yen and dollar drift on Iran deal concerns, payroll jitters

• USD/JPY has seen a tight 157.57-157.85 range, on Thursday, according to EBS data

• Nervousness over more FX intervention fading a bit but still seen as possible

• The recent price action hints at a downside rejection at least in the near-term

• There is scope for a bigger USD/JPY recovery to eventually test the 158.56 Fibo

• 158.56 Fibo is a 38.2% retrace of the recent 163.99-155.20 intervention fueled slump

• USD/JPY and EUR/JPY tend to move in tandem, log correlations are high above +0.5

Daily Chart


(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Thursday 6 August

• EUR/USD: 1.1445-50 (1.71BLN), 1.1465 (446M), 1.1480-90 (1.41BLN)

• 1.1495-05 (1.5BLN), 1.1510-20 (1.14BLN), 1.1525-35 (1.3BLN)

• 1.1540-45 (751M), 1.1550-60 (2.5BLN), 1.1565-75 (2.5BLN

• 1.1580-85 (260M), 1.1595-00 (680M), 1.1615 (258M)

• USD/JPY: 157.00 (1.43BLN), 157.45-50 (1.94BLN), 157.75 (1.81BLN)

• 158.00 (226M), 158.50 (496M), 158.95-00 (714M)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• EUR/USD 1.1544-59 range on Thursday

• The top of the daily Ichimoku cloud is 1.1561

• The 100-DMA is 1.1569, peak 20-day Bollingers 1.1571

• There is scope for a bigger rise and traders are short

• Likely to see stops triggered above cloud and 100-DMA

•
EURUSD


(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP/USD steady in Asia after closing 0.1% higher on Wednesday

• Narrow ranges prevail as traders await fresh cues

• Cautious optimism over Iran peace deal, buoyant risk appetite support GBP

• Brent crude holds below $80, U.S. yields soften, underpin GBP

• Sep Fed hike odds fall to 55% from 68% Mon, 82% before July 29 Fed

• Focus shifts to U.S. July jobs data on Fri, key for Fed rate expectations

• GBP/JPY consolidates after 4.2% drop from last week's high

• Japan's intervention strategy assessed as clamour for BOJ rate hike grows

• Resistance 1.3500-10, 1.3535-40; support 1.3420-25, 1.3390-1.3400

• Wednesday range 1.34485-1.3486, Asia 1.3461-1.34715
GBP:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY 157.57-76 EBS, EUR/JPY 182.15-31 EBS, CHF/JPY 195.15-16

• GBP/JPY 212.14-48, AUD/JPY 111.12-34, NZD/JPY 92.70-92

• All at or near retracement highs following FX intervention last week

• On follow-up JPY buying Monday on Bessent-speak, BOJ hike expectations

• Nervousness over more FX intervention fading a bit but still seen possible

• Market now seems to be waiting for US jobs report Friday, more Mideast news

• Narrower JGB-US Treasury rate differentials to help cap USD/JPY for now

• Massive nearby option expiries today to help contain spot action too?

• USD/JPY 157.00 $1.4 bln, 157.45-50 $1.9 bln, 157.75 $1.8 bln

• Smattering of other JPY cross option expiries too today but out of range

• Related comments , , also

• On flows , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:


JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential - hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

(Corrects month in headline and 2nd bullet)

• AUD/USD flat Thur, trading subdued despite renewed uplift in metals prices

• AU June balance on goods 1.9 bln surplus (poll -1.1 bln), exports +9.6%

• Gold +1.1%, Copper +0.3%, WTI +0.8% Thur amid Strait of Hormuz reopen hopes

• AUD 0.7088 resistance looming, break above would reinvigorate recent upswing

• U.S. initial jobless claims due Thur, followed by Jul NFP on Fri (poll +80k)

• Range Asia 0.7053-60 support 0.6920 0.6866, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Hourly Bollinger Study & DXY Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/THB opens lower, slide in USD and oil prices weigh

• Pair traded 33.09-33.18 range in NY, closed at 33.13

• Support at 33.0 eyed, break risks 32.80, 32.50

• Rally in gold prices may add to selling pressure in pair; spot last $4289/oz

• Base of 21days BB and fear of agents buying likely to limit falls

• USD falls ahead of US payrolls, DXY last 99.66, ranged 99.63-90 overnight

• Optimism on Iran talks weigh on the dollar

• Brent crude last at $79.25/bbl, WTI at $74.88/bbl

• UST yields sideways, 2yr at 4.19%, 10yr at 4.61%

• Stocks mixed with Nasdaq down
THB

(Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own.)

• NZD/USD +0.4% from Wed 0.58605 low despite the concerning unemployment trend

• Wed's 5.6% NZ Q2 HLFS unemployment the highest in more than ten years

• Futures pricing still implying an 86.8% probability of a Sep RBNZ hike

• Brent crude below $80 a barrel for 2nd-consecutive day on Iran peace hopes

• Market focus moves to U.S. Jul non-farm payrolls due Fri (poll +80k)

• NZD targeting 0.5990 resistance, but break below 0.5850 will signal reversal

• Range NZ 0.58845-891, support 0.5850 0.5627, resistance 0.5990-95 0.60925
NZD Daily 55-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/CNH remains suppressed, drifts down to 6.7477 early Thurs

• Ceiling of Bollinger downtrend channel shifts lower to 6.7544

• Last week's 40-mth low of 6.7422 within reach, amid tepid risk-on

• While USD/JPY also tightly restrained, most USD/AXJ bogged down

• China tightens drone exports in retaliation to US actions

• Iran, Oman progress on Hormuz transit talks
CNH


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD +0.15% late Wed as positivity on U.S.-Iran peace prospects continues

• Gold +4.2% as UST yields dipped with Brent crude staying below $80 a barrel

• Iran threatens to hit Gulf states it the U.S. renews its attacks

• Attention switching to U.S. Jul non-farm payrolls due Fri (poll +80k)

• AUD needs break above 0.7088 resistance to trigger next leg higher

• AU Jul balance of goods due Thur, Reuters poll consensus 1.1 bln deficit

• Overnight range 0.7040-65 support 0.6920, resistance 0.70885 0.7200
AUD Daily 55-DMA


Gold Daily 21-DMA

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

ANZ Research discusses NZD/USD and RBNZ rates outlook into year-end. ANZ targets NZD/USD at 0.58 by end of Q3 and at 0.60 by year-end.

"We expect the NZD/USD to finish the year at 0.60 and see the RBNZ lifting the official cash rate a further 50bp before the end of the year, before holding at 3.00%. In contrast, our forecast calls for key policy rates in both the US and Australia to hold at current levels, before which the RBA is expected to ease 50bp across 2027. The US likely won’t begin easing until 2028," ANZ notes.

"The NZD should therefore find support from a narrowing interest rate differential. Outsized net short positions are also weighing down the NZD. We see scope for positions to walk back, lifting constraints for the NZD. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices do remain potential headwinds to NZD performance against the USD and AUD given New Zealand’s energy importer status," ANZ adds.

• GBP$ up a smidge in NY afternoon, +0.08% at 1.3467; NorAm range 1.3486-49

• Slight range as Geopol and intervention themes lose veracity; long-end gilt yield dip

• Trader await Friday's U.S. payroll data for clues to near-term Fed policy, post-Fed hold

• Beyond Friday's data, traders will be focused on Aug 12 US CPI, Aug 19 UK CPI

• Liquidity light owing to dearth of news, summer liquidity; GBP shorts unwinding

• GBP$ res 1.3486 Wed high, 1.3500/05 psychological lvl/Aug 3 high, 1.3536 upper 30-d Bolli

• Supt 1.3449 Wed low, 1.3401- the flat 200-DMA, 1.3370 30-DMA

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 1.1540 after EUR/USD slowly moved upward overnight

• Rally extended early NY on broad-based USD selling, tighter US-DE spreads

• Gains in gold, silver and equities also contributed to the US dollar selling theme

• EUR/USD hit 1.1557 then dipped to 1.1540 as USD, US yields traded firmly

• The dip was bought as yields turned down & USD weakened again

• EUR/UDS sat near 1.1555late, the pair traded up +0.18% in NY's afternoon

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising & EUR/USD is above the 10-, 21- & 55-DMAs

• Ongoing consolidation of gains off the July 28 low adds to bullish signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.7045 after AUD/USD traded a tight 0.7040-0.7056 range overnight

• The pair rallied early on broad-based USD selling, gains in gold, silver, copper, equities

• 0.7065 traded, the pair then dipped as USD/CNH moved upward & stocks weakened

• US yield move lower helped to limit AUD/USD's pullback from the high

• The pair sat near 0.7055 late in the day, it traded up +0.10% as of this writing

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs are rising, pair is above 10-, 21-, 55- & 200-DMAs

• The August monthly long-legged doji candle reinforces the bullish tech signals
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

MUFG Research reviews the latest BoJ minutes from the June meeting.

"The minutes of the June BoJ policy meeting, when the BoJ raised rates to 1.00%, revealed that several members believed that monetary conditions would remain accommodative after that agreed rate hike. It was also evident in the minutes that inflation risks would remain to the upside and that there was a possible justification in considering a faster pace of monetary tightening to manage upside inflation risks," MUFG notes.

"The minutes today certainly opened up the prospect of a sooner rate hike. The implied probability of a September hike has now increased to close to 60%. Data released today also reinforces the prospect of a hike. Labour cash earnings increased 3.4% YoY in June, up from 3.2%. The same sample reading that the BoJ monitors for consistency jumped sharply, from 2.9% to 4.4%. This is yet more data indicating upside inflation risks that we believe should convince the BoJ to raise rates in September – a development that would help back up the intervention especially if a deal for a more lasting Middle East ceasefire is about to be announced in the meantime," MUFG adds.