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Oct 05 - 09:55 AM

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: 'Days Of Reckoning Beckon'; What's The Trade? - Credit Suisse

By eFXdata  —  Oct 05 - 08:30 AM

Credit Suisse likes fading GBP strength in the first half of October via selling GBP/USD close to 1.30 and buying EUR/GBP below 0.91.

"For now, GBP is holding its own while trade talks with the EU are ongoing, given the ever-present chance of a breakthrough. Especially as option markets suggest that risk premia are already priced into the GBP options curve, specifically in the 2-3m GBP tenors where “no deal” economic impacts start to be felt," CS notes. 

"But we still believe underlying UK economic fragility and the risk of a final show down with the EU means GBP levels approaching 1.30 in GBPUSD and below 0.91 in EURGBP should be faded in the first half of October," CS adds. 

Credit Suisse Research/Market Commentary


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