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Mar 09 - 01:55 PM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Backs Away From The Brink Ahead Of Pivotal Payrolls

By Randolph Donney  —  Mar 09 - 12:20 PM

EUR/USD held key 100-day moving average support again Friday, helped by above-forecast jobless claims ahead of a non-farm payrolls report on Friday that could dictated a more decisive directional move.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish testimony and above-forecast ADP and JOLTS data this week fueled EUR/USD's fall this week.

Regardless of slight rebounds in still historically subdued jobless claims, the money market has retained its clear bias for the Fed to hike rates 50bp this month, after downshifting to 25bp at the previous meeting.
And 2-year bund-Treasury yields spreads only recovered 3bp of the 14bp plunge from Monday's high to Wednesday's low.

The forecast range for February's non-farm payrolls range is 78k-325k, with the median and "smart" estimates at 205k and 216.7k.
Uncertainty is higher following January's 517k rise was more than double forecast.

That uncertainty might muddle the response to Friday's results unless payrolls clearly beat expectations and January's surge isn't revised substantially lower.
In that case, the 100-day moving average, at 1.0535 on Friday, could give way to new 2023 lows.

A clear miss could foster reversion up toward the 10- and 21-day moving averages, last at 1.0598/640, ahead of Tuesday crucial CPI report.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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