• NY opened near 1.1490 after 1.15475 traded on EBS overnight, drop extended

• Bid for US 10-yr note, stocks, USD/CNH drove broad based US$ buying

• Gold drop reinforced the bid for the US$; EUR/USD fell toward the 5-DMA

• Pair traded 1.1431 then neared 1.1450 late on light US$ selling, pair was down -0.50%

• Techs are mixed; the daily RSI is falling but the monthly RSI is rising

• Hold above the 5-DMA comforts longs but move below 1.1490/1.1500 is a concern
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive view on GBP/USD, citing UK resilience to US trade shocks and European FX strength. However, they advise caution on Sterling relative to other European currencies due to lingering domestic risks.

Key Points:

• GBP/USD Outlook Positive:
  Sterling continues to benefit from broad EUR FX strength and its lower vulnerability to US tariffs, keeping the upside case for Cable (GBP/USD) intact.

• Domestic Risks Persist:
  Goldman flags the risk of renewed fiscal premium concerns in the UK, especially if fiscal headroom tightens. Additionally, a dovish BoE pivot could emerge, though it may partially ease those fiscal concerns.

• Sterling vs. European FX:
  Despite the broader bullish bias on GBP, Goldman does not see a strong case for GBP outperformance vs. EUR, CHF, or SEK, given domestic uncertainties.

• Substitutive Risk Factors:
  A dovish BoE and fiscal risks are seen as interlinked—with one likely tempering the impact of the other—making sustained outperformance of GBP more difficult relative to peers.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs remains bullish on GBP/USD in the broader European FX context, but sees limited upside for GBP vs. other European currencies near term due to the UK’s fiscal and monetary policy ambiguity.

• $CAD a tad soft into Lon cls, -0.18% at 1.3815; Tuesday range 1.3860-1.3795

• USD broadly sideways amid lingering Trump-Fed, trade uncertainties

• Commods remain firm amid rising inflation expectations, Powell/Fed concerns

• Gold off session, ATHs at $3,500.-, USD alternatives remain bid; BTC +4.2%

• STIR futs price near 50% odds for BoC June cut, Fed seen on hold in May

• $CAD res 1.3860 Tues high, 1.3896 falling 10-DMA, 1.4014 flat 200-DMA

• Supt 1.3781 Monday low, 1.3733 the 100-WMA, 1.3691 lwr 21-d Bolli

CAD Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Morgan Stanley’s latest analysis of FX derivatives markets highlights a shift in investor sentiment across major currency pairs. Positioning signals show tactical investors leaning long EUR and GBP, while shedding exposure to CHF, CAD, and USD.

Key Points:

• Options Market Trends:

  • Investors reduced short SEK (vs EUR) positions, suggesting less bearishness on the Swedish krona.

  • Fresh long positions in AUD were added, signaling renewed optimism on the Aussie dollar.

  • Long CHF and CAD positions were trimmed, indicating declining confidence in traditional safe havens and resource-driven currencies.

• Futures Market Trends:

  • Short CAD and NZD positions were reduced, hinting at a softening of bearish views.

  • Long GBP and EUR positions were scaled back, though both currencies remain favored in broader positioning.

• Overall Positioning Biases:

  • Tactical investors are currently:

    • Long EUR and GBP

    • Short NOK (vs EUR) and USD (DXY)

  • In futures markets:

    • Long EUR and JPY

    • Short CHF and CAD

Conclusion:

Positioning data confirms the broad shift away from USD and into select European and high-beta currencies. Investors are expressing tactical EUR and GBP strength, while safe-haven flows into CHF are fading. The long JPY position also reflects a growing risk-off undertone amid global uncertainty.

Sterling pulled back from overnight highs above 1.34, dipping to the mid-1.3350s in early NorAm trading, as recent USD weakness subsided, though with global trade concerns and heightened Trump-Fed drama ongoing, the pound is likely to remain relatively well bid.

The 1.34 level has encountered resistance just above 1.3420, a familiar sell zone from late September, where selling pressure emerged around 1.3430.

There is, however, a stark positioning difference in the recent rise. IMM spec positioning was notably high in late-September 2024 at long 87k contracts, which hinted that specs were ripe to take profits as GBP/USD had climbed from August lows near 1.27.

In contrast, by April 15, sterling positioning was considerably lower, at long 6,500 contracts. With positioning relatively flat, the impulse to sell is likely far less, and should the current political and trade conditions remain intact, the dollar is likely to weaken further, propelling GBP/USD higher still as traders reload long positions. A break above 1.3437, the March 4 2022 weekly high, should open the way for a test of February 2022 highs above 1.36. However, if current tariff and Fed tensions ease, sterling is likely to come untethered from its rising upper 30-D Bolli and slip back toward its 10-DMA around 1.3188.
GBP Chart:

(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

The US dollar is suffering through its worst April on record and one of the worst monthly performances in three decades, according to Credit Agricole. Mounting concerns over unorthodox US policy, FX market intervention risks, and attacks on the Fed’s independence are eroding confidence in the greenback—triggering outflows and a fragile market tone.

Key Points:

• USD Sentiment Collapse:
  What began as market discomfort with President Trump’s tariff and fiscal policies has grown into panic about the long-term USD outlook, driving a historic sell-off in the trade-weighted dollar (NEER).

• Two Central Fears Driving the Sell-Off:

  1. “Mar-a-Lago Accord” Narrative: Speculation that the US could pursue a coordinated USD devaluation to fix its external imbalances.

  2. Fiscal Dominance Over the Fed: Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chair Powell raise fears of compromised central bank independence.

• USD Outflows Emerging:
  Their ETF tracker shows signs of capital exiting US equities, suggesting a broader reassessment of USD-denominated assets.

• Why Credit Agricole Isn’t Fully Bearish Yet:

  • They doubt a formal devaluation accord will emerge anytime soon.

  • The Fed is expected to maintain its inflation-fighting focus, especially as tariffs and FX depreciation drive price pressures.

  • EUR appreciation, by contrast, may complicate the ECB’s inflation mandate—possibly limiting further EUR strength.

  • USD’s reserve-currency status remains intact due to a lack of viable global alternatives.

• Short-Term USD Risks Remain Elevated:
  Even if structural confidence holds, market sentiment is poor, and upcoming Fed commentary and US data releases may do little to reverse that tone.

Conclusion:

While Credit Agricole sees some structural resilience in the USD based on inflation dynamics and reserve status, they acknowledge that the dollar is in a precarious position. Investor fears over policy credibility and Fed independence could continue to drive near-term underperformance—especially if data or rhetoric fails to shift market psychology.

Synopsis:

While both the Japanese yen and euro have rallied ~12% against the US dollar this year, BofA believes the underlying drivers are not equally durable. The euro's rise looks more structurally supported, whereas the yen's strength appears more vulnerable to reversal, particularly if US-Japan trade talks progress.

Key Points:

1. Speculative Overcrowding in JPY:
   The yen’s rally has been fueled by rising speculative positioning, leaving it more vulnerable to positioning squeezes—especially if talk of a US-Japan currency agreement gathers steam.

2. EUR’s Rally More Regime-Resilient:
   The euro has outperformed more consistently across market regimes, showing greater momentum durability than the yen.

3. Fundamental Euro Tailwinds:
   The EUR rally is anchored in idiosyncratic strength, notably Germany’s fiscal shift, providing a more solid and persistent macro backing.

4. BoJ Policy and Hidden Outflows:
   The yen’s rise has occurred despite waning expectations of further BoJ tightening and little focus on Japan’s sustained structural outflows, which still persist quietly under the surface.

Conclusion:

BofA argues that EUR strength is more fundamentally grounded and less crowded, while JPY gains are prone to retracement, particularly if US-Japan trade negotiations revive FX diplomacy headlines. They suggest upside potential in EUR/JPY as the relative narrative tilts in the euro’s favor.

• EUR/USD 1.2000 far more than a major psychological resistance

• There are several hugely important chart points near 1.20

• The 200-MMA is 1.2025 - no close above this point

• Target to correct 2008-2022 drop (1.6040-0.9528) is 1.2016

• The mid-point of all-time extremes (1.6040-0.8228) is 1.2134

• Likely to see demand for downside protection surge on rise near 1.20

• Option and corporate selling likely to intensify toward 1.20

• Rush to buy EUR/USD may pave the way for larger drop

• *



EURUSD all time extremes


EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Tighter ranges and longer lower candle shadows take their toll on the trend

• USD/CAD remains clear below the 10 and 200-day moving averages

• The 10-DMA crossed below the 200-day line on April 10: bear signal

• Fourteen day momentum negative but not confirming latest price drop

• Daily relative strength index bumping along sideways close to over sold

• Risk of rebounds back to the 10-DMA line, currently 1.3897

• While below 1.4015 200-DMA trend remains skewed to the downside
USD/CAD daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY dropped from 141.17 to 139.89, on Tuesday, lowest level since Sept

• 140 option barriers have been taken out, weakening the market structure

• Rebounds, in part, due to Japanese importers and profit-taking shorts buying

• Dollar looks set for a deeper slump as pessimism soars

• If USD/JPY breaks under Sept's 139.58 low, that would weaken the mkt further

• EUR/JPY is at risk of bucking its usual positive April trend

• Japan sees little scope for grand deal on yen in talks with US

Daily Chart

(Martin Miller is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD holds above 0.6400 (ex-resistance level) as it consolidates gains

• 0.6439 was high at 0531 GMT, highest level since Dec 10

• Ascent to 0.6439 fuelled by USD selling after Trump's attacks on Powell

• Offers pre-0.64 capped AUD/USD gains last week (0.6395 = April 17/18 highs)

• CFTC data: net AUD short down 7% to 58,848 contracts in week ended April 15

• Early voting in Australia election begins; Labor party holds slender lead

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable rises to 1.3422 as Trump's attacks on Powell weigh on dollar

• 1.3422 is highest level since September 2024. 1.3421 was Monday's high

• Good Friday high was 1.3300. Maundy Thursday range was 1.3203-1.3273

• Resistance levels include 1.3434 (September's 30-month high) and 1.35

• CFTC data showed net GBP long fell to 6,509 contracts in week ended April 15

• Third consecutive week in which the net GBP long position shrank

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• July 2020 last 10-day uninterrupted GBP/USD bull run

• Thin Monday market saw GBP rally to 1.3421: September 2024 last time higher

• Early Tuesday and the run extended to 1.3422

• Overbought readings on both daily and weekly charts

• Weeklies showing a three-week acceleration in the bull trend

• Market has not been this overbought since September

• Early June cloud twist in the 1.2860-65 area could begin to drag on GBP

• Correction risk but wary of stepping in front of this train just yet
GBP/USD daily candle chart:


GBP/USD weekly candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Shares of Native Mineral Resources rise 18.5% to A$0.160, their highest level since December 2, 2022

• Stock set for its strongest session since February 17 - if current trend holds

• Copper and gold mining co identifies high-grade, shallow gold mineralization at the Blackjack Gold Project in Queensland

• About 5.9 mln shares change hands, 2.7x their 30-day average of 2.2 mln shares

• Stock up 310.3% YTD, including current session's moves

(Reporting by Manasi Dasa in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY on the back foot again in Asia after an early pop to 141.17 EBS

• Pop on back of Japanese importer buys, some profit-taking by shorts

• Move above 141.00 roundly rejected however, off since to 140.20

• Series of daily lows, some harking back to September '24 pierced

• Next support 140.00, option barriers tipped at strike, large stops below too

• Next support 139.58 trough on September 16 '24, to be by-passed on stops?

• De-dollarization continuing apace on concerns over Fed Powell fate, tariffs

• Fibo retracements of 102.59-161.96 move between January '21-July '24 eyed

• Fibo 38.2 retracement at 139.28, 50% at 132.27, Fibo 61.8% at 125.26

• JPY crosses mostly steady amidst broad USD weakness

• EUR/JPY 161.78-162.22 EBS, GBP/JPY 187.75-188.77, AUD/JPY 90.06-56

• EUR/JPY sees E500 mln 160.20, E510 mln 164.95 option expiries today

• Related comments , , also ,
USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD off highs in Asia, yet remains bid, +8.6% since Apr 9 low

• Bounces from hourly lower Bollinger band, likely to re-test highs

• Broad deterioration in USD sentiment continues to support the pair

• Trump's tirade towards Jerome Powell fuels concern over Fed independence

• Quiet week ahead for AU data; U.S. S&P PMI due Wed, durable goods Thur

• AUD range Asia 0.64006-22, support 0.6180, resistance 0.6469 0.6550
AUD Hourly & Daily

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

April 22 (Reuters) - The sky continues to fall for USD/JPY with the pair down to as low as 140.48 on EBS Monday. The bias remains down with de-dollarisation proceeding apace and especially so after U.S. President Donald Trump's bashing of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell , .

Key supports are eyed below, and these are expected to remain in speculators' sights going forward. Daily supports include Monday's 140.48 low, 140.45 and 140.33 on September 18 and 17, 2024.

Then there is 140.00, a level associated with possible option barriers. These barriers could be large and stops below possibly massive. A break below this level could target 139.58, a trough seen on September 16, 2024.

Fibonacci retracement levels are also on being eyed closely. Fibo 38.2% retracement of the 102.59 to 161.96 move between January 2021 and July 2024 comes in at 139.28. 50% retracement is at 132.27 and Fibo 61.8% at 125.26.

Tokyo players suggest 50% retracement of the 2021-2024 move could be achieved as the year progresses and especially if the Bank of Japan maintains its hawkish stance , . The Fed, for its part, could hold off on further cuts indefinitely pending data on the effects of U.S. tariffs and other Trump administration policies , .
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY monthly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Off 0.05% after closing up 0.6%, with the U.S. dollar off 0.95%

• The safe-haven USD is under pressure as Trump/Fed comments fuel selling

• UK PM Starmer discussed trade with Trump, Downing Street says

• There is no major UK data or BOE events - USD and risk appetite lead GBP

• Charts - Monday's 1.3421 2025 trend high sustains the current uptrend

• 5, 10, & 21-day moving averages rise, as 21-day Bollinger bands expand

• Daily momentum studies climb/crest - positive signals suggest further gains

• Thursday's 1.3203 low and then last week's 1.3068 base are initial supports

• The 2024 1.3434 high is the next significant resistance, and under pressure
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Up 0.1% after closing 1.05% higher with the U.S. dollar off 0.95%

• USD sold off on Trump's attack on Fed Chair Powell's refusal to cut rates

• Conflict between Trump and the Fed underscores the EUR as a safe-haven

• Putin says he is open to direct peace talks with Ukraine - progress?

• EU says it will enforce digital rules irrespective of CEO and location

• Charts - 21-day Bollinger bands expand, 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages rise

• Daily momentum studies climb - signals retain a positive trending setup

• Yesterday's 1.1572 top - 1.1692 October 2021 high are the first resistance

• Monday's 1.1393 low and then April 15th 1.1264 low are the initial support

• A close below the rising 1.1332 10-DMA would flag caution for bulls
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD sits +3.7% for 2025 after breaking key 0.6390 technical resistance

• Pair continues to benefit from a broad deterioration in USD sentiment

• U.S. assets under renewed pressure following Trump's tirade at Fed's Powell

• AUD approaching 200-DMA, crossover will further invigorate bulls

• Quiet week ahead for AU data; U.S. S&P PMI due Wed, durable goods Thur

• Monday range AUD 0.6374-0.6436, support 0.6180, resistance 0.6469 0.6550
AUD Daily

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

April 21 (Reuters) - The dollar index recovered some ground after hitting a three-year low earlier on Monday, but it was still lower in afternoon trade, pressured by worries over Federal Reserve independence, declining U.S. assets, and falling energy prices.

DXY reached its most oversold level on the 14-day RSI since July, 2020 following a weekend gap down in thin liquidity. U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, warning that the U.S. economy faces a potential slowdown unless interest rates are promptly reduced. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee favored a wait-and-see approach for policy, saying that if tariff impacts remain confined to the 11% of the economy tied to imports, their overall effect may be relatively minor.

Trade is top of mind when hundreds of finance leaders descend on Washington this week at the semi-annual gatherings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group.

In U.S. data, an index of leading indicators fell 0.7% in March. Earnings, central bank speakers and PMIs are also on this week's docket. EUR/USD surged to 1.1575, its highest level in over three years, before paring gains.

Gains were exaggerated by 1.15 barrier options and thin liquidity due to the Easter holiday. EUR/USD remains overbought, yet the bulls' case is bolstered by narrow retracements, a bullish crossover of the 55-DMA above the 200-DMA and increasing position building in futures. Nearby EUR/USD support lies at the April 15 low of 1.1263. The common currency may receive another boost if Ukraine peace talks progress this week. Sources told Reuters that the European Union is looking at ways to make it easier for U.S. gas exports to comply with emissions rules.

GBP/USD trimmed its gains after nearing the 2024 high of 1.3434, as Easter Monday kept trading volumes subdued. Despite entering overbought territory following a 10-day advance, bullish momentum is expected to provide support. The 5-day moving average at 1.3281 and the April 18 low at 1.3262 serve as near-term support levels. This week’s focus includes PMIs and several appearances from Bank of England speakers.

USD/JPY remains on the defensive as U.S. equities and energy prices come under pressure.

Key events this week include Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato's visit to the U.S., as well as April Tokyo CPI and PMI data. Attention is centered on USD/JPY's 2024 low at 139.58, which lies just below the key psychological level of 140. Trend-following resistance is noted at the 200-hour moving average of 143.13 in USD/JPY. Sources indicate that the Bank of Japan is expected to communicate at next week's policy meeting that higher U.S. tariffs are unlikely to disrupt the ongoing cycle of rising wages and inflation.

Treasury yields were mixed as the curve steepened sharply. The 2s-10s curve was up about 12 basis points to +53.0bp.

The S&P 500 sank 3.3%, dragged lower by broad sector losses.

Oil slid nearly 2.2% on signs of progress in U.S.-Iran talks, while demand worries and weather sent natural gas down 6.5%.

Gold rose over 3% to a new record while copper was nearly unchanged. Heading toward the close: EUR/USD +1.12%, USD/JPY -1.05%, GBP/USD +0.63%, AUD/USD +0.62%, DXY -1.07%, EUR/JPY -0.06%, GBP/JPY -0.46%, AUD/JPY -0.46%.(Editing by Burton Frierson Reporting by Robert Fullem)

(Change Headline)

• USD/JPY trims loss after falling from 142.15 to 140.48 low on EBS

• Firmer 10-year Treasury yields, low Easter Monday volume slows momentum

• Oil and share prices slide, Pres Trump reiterates call for Fed Powell to cut

• BOJ expected to maintain tightening bias: sources

• Fin Min Kato visit to US, April Tokyo CPI and PMIs this week

• US earnings, trade talks and IMF/World Bank also slated

• Lower highs in pair weighs; DXY may bounce after weekend gap lower

• Volatilities, skews not reacting to spot shifts

• 100-hour MA at 142.14 and 200-hour MA at 143.13 (approx 9-EMA)may cap

• Supp: 140.33 Sept 17 low; 140.00 pscyhol; 139.58 Sept 16

• Resist: 141.62-64 April 16-17 lows 142.52 April 18 high; 143.16 9-EMA
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Adjust decimal in supports)

• GBP/USD pares gain after nearing its 2024 high of 1.3434

• Session range is 1.3266-1.3421; volumes thinned by Easter Monday

• Ten-day advance sends pair into overbought zone on 14-day RSI

• Settles below upper Bollinger though momentum, MAs supports bull trend

• May see brief DXY rebound after gap down on Monday

• Week ahead includes PMIs, BOE speakers featuring Gov. Bailey

• Supp: 1.3281 5-DMA ; 1.3262 Apr 18 low; 1.3207 Apr 3 high

• Resist: 1.3434 2024 high; 1.3640 Feb 14 2022 high
GBP

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

HSBC argues that the US dollar is now trading below what rate differentials would imply, pointing to a growing “discount” driven by policy instability and structural concerns. Traditional FX drivers no longer explain the USD’s trajectory, and further weakness is expected against safe havens and the euro.

Key Points:

• USD Undervalued vs Rate Differentials:
  Despite relatively supportive rate spreads, the USD is underperforming, reflecting broader investor discomfort with U.S. policy direction.

• Policy Uncertainty a Key Drag:
  With no clarity on a stable U.S. trade policy regime, investors are pricing in ongoing volatility and geopolitical risk, undermining USD appeal.

• Traditional Drivers Losing Influence:
  Historical relationships like interest rate spreads and economic differentials are failing to explain recent USD moves, suggesting a structural shift.

• Targeted USD Weakness Expected:
  HSBC sees continued downside pressure on the USD versus JPY, CHF, and EUR, where safe-haven and structural flows are strongest.

• Limited Downside in Other Crosses:
  There may be some consolidation in USD crosses where local fundamentals (e.g., in commodity or EM currencies) cap further downside for now.

Conclusion:

HSBC frames the current dollar slump as more than cyclical weakness—it’s a reputational erosion. Until the U.S. restores policy credibility, USD is likely to remain structurally pressured, particularly versus the core G10 safe-haven and funding currencies.