ANZ Research maintains a constructive bias on EUR/USD into year-end.

"The key question for Q4 is whether stronger domestic demand can offset a weakening external backdrop. The euro area’s January-July trade surplus narrowed to from same time a year earlier. While the EU-US trade agreement leaves most EU exports facing a 15% US tariff, limiting the scope for a sustained export recovery," ANZ notes.

"On balance, we maintain our 1.17 forecast for EUR/USD. With gains from the current level likely to depend more on euro area growth resilience and USD weakness than ECB repricing," ANZ adds.