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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
USD / CAD
AUD / USD
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USD / CHF
AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 28 - 02:29 PM
  • Broad based US$ buying drive AUD/USD down in Europe am, NY opens near 0.7345

  • US$ persists as US yields, rates rise, AUD/USD hits 0.7324 before bouncing

  • USD/CNH slide extends below 6.4970, US$ buys halt, AUD/USD erode some losses

  • 0.7355 is neared before selling into Fed brings it towards 0.7345

  • US$, rates initially rally after Fed statement nL1N2P30V1, AUD/USD sinks

  • Pair hits 0.7317 but US$ selling emerges, AUD/USD rallies above 0.7350

  • Techs lean bearish; pair below 10 & 21-DMAs, daily & monthly RSIs falling

  • For more click on FXBUZ

audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 28 - 01:01 PM
  • AUD/USD briefly lifts above the 10-DMA again but the rally stalls

  • A slide ensues and AUD/USD goes on to hit a 5-session low

  • Falling daily, monthly RSIs imply lower levels due but support is near

  • Good support sits in the 0.7285/90 area, stops likely sit below the zone

  • Break of that support suggests next leg of bear trend is beginning

  • Bears then likely target 38.2% Fib of 0.5510-0.8007 which sits 0.7053

  • For more click on FXBUZ


audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 28 - 10:45 AM

Citi discusses its expectations for today's FOMC meeting.

"Should the Fed officially prep markets for a taper announcement in two months, the USD is likely to tactically strengthen. Alternatively, a more ‘dovish’ lean would help stem the greenback’s latest advancements," Citi notes. 

"Overall however, we think that the FOMC is unlikely to have huge implications on the dollar. Whichever way the taper hint is delivered it won’t be a huge shock to the market - it’s coming soon. Whether it be a month or two earlier or later is unlikely to matter much for markets that have been preparing for the moment for the last year. What’s $15bn a month in tapering when we’re about to release $140bn of dollar liquidity into the market across four days?," Citi adds. 

Source:
Citi Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 28 - 10:40 AM

GBP/USD was trading down 0.06% at 1.3870 on Wednesday but remained anchored near recent trend highs and a smidge below July 12's monthly high at 1.3912 as markets awaited insights into Fed tapering discussions, which might also clarify the outlook for BoE policy.

Tapering is the first step toward eventually raising U.S. rates and may hold insights into the BoE's normalization plans. Recent comments by some BoE members have pushed the issue forward, even with the resignation of recent hawk Andy Haldane, with more MPC members expected to start voting to reduce the UK asset purchase program from its current GBP 875bn.

The pound, though off 2021 highs by 1.4250, remains up 1.37% versus the dollar, while EUR=EBS has slipped 3.5% and JPY=EBS has gained 6.63%.

A less-dovish lean by the Fed, and Chair Jerome Powell, may validate more taper support from the BoE, which may open the way for sterling bulls to make another run at 2021 highs.

GBP/USD finds resistance at 1.3911, the 50% Fib of 1.4250-1.3573's June-July range above which 100- and 55-DMA resistance looms at 1.3924 and 1.3970, with June 23's 1.4001, the recent trend high, capping.

For more click on FXBUZ


GBP Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 28 - 09:30 AM

MUFG Research discusses its expectations for today's FOMC policy meeting.

"The risks emanating from the Delta variant are likely to be the primary downside risk factor in focus at this evening’s FOMC meeting but the developing situation in China may well be raised in the Q&A,"MUFG notes. 

"We have already laid out our views for this week's meeting but in summary, we do not expect any explicit detail on tapering plans this evening but we also do not expect a dovish pivot and hence expectations that tapering planning is progressing will be maintained which should support the dollar," MUFG adds. 

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 28 - 08:52 AM

Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for today's FOMC policy meeting.

"We think that the bigger risk on the day would be a ‘hawkish surprise’ similar to the June policy meeting. Indeed, evidence that the recent economic data releases have started to shift the balance of risks at the FOMC in favour of policy normalization in coming months could encourage the front-loading of rate hike expectations and boost UST yields. The USD could regain some ground on back of growing rate and yields advantage," CACIB notes. 

"Depending on how resilient risk appetite is in the face of tightening US financial conditions, any USD gains would manifest themselves vs low-yielders like the JPY (under risk on) or risk-correlated currencies like the GBP (under risk off)," CACIB adds. 

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 28 - 08:09 AM
  • Cable holds below 1.39 as market awaits Fed policy statement nL1N2P30V1

  • Offers pre-1.39 kept a lid on GBP/USD gains during the Ldn am nL1N2P40II

  • Sell orders just shy of 1.39 also capped Tuesday's fix flow-fuelled rise

  • USD could rally if the Fed statement at 1800GMT is less dovish than expected

  • 1.3861, 1.3833, 1.3800 and 1.3768 (Tuesday's low) are GBP/USD support points

  • UK PM wants U.S. travellers back as restrictions set to ease nL8N2P429W

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 28 - 07:25 AM
  • Copper HGv1 sinks while US rates EDZ2 gains buoy the US$

  • Above estimate AU Q2 CPI nL1N2P404A drives brief rally overnight

  • AUD/USD briefly pierces the 10-DMA, trades 0.7375 but gains erode

  • Broad based US$ =USD buying ahead of the Fed weighs down AUD/USD

  • Pair sinks to 0.7339 in early NY despite USD/CNH fall near 6.5025

  • AUD/USD techs lean bearish; RSIs falling & 10-DMA helps cap gains

  • If Fed deemed less dovish US$, rates should rally & AUD/USD fall further

  • For more click on FXBUZ



audusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 28 - 04:47 AM
  • Broader USD and FX risk to GBP/USD is reflected in the FX options market

  • Overnight expiry now Thursday from Wednesday 10-am New York, so captures Fed

  • Overnight implied volatility up from 9.0 to 12.0 - last seen before June BoE

  • Premium for straddle $69-pips, from $52-pips break even - either direction

  • Benchmark 1-mth expiry implied vol 7.0 from 6.8 Tue (peaked 7.25 last week)

  • Risk reversals hold 0.425 GBP puts over calls - downside caution remains

  • Related nL1N2P40FEnL1N2P30KI

For more click on FXBUZ


GBPUSD overnight vol Click here

1-3-Month GBP/USD risk reversals Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 28 - 03:58 AM
  • N225 slips on Wall Street retreat, record virus cases in Tokyo nL1N2P40BY

  • When risk aversion rises, funds usually flow into the safe-haven yen

  • There is now talk of offers circa the 110.00 level

  • USD/JPY suffers a setback, but technical support props nL1N2P40DF

  • USD/JPY has seen a 109.75-95 range on Wednesday according EBS data

  • USD/JPY and EUR/JPY positive relationship grows, 30-day correlation +0.68

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Richard Pace  —  Jul 28 - 02:38 AM
  • EUR/USD option implied volatility much higher as FOMC looms Wednesday

  • Seems traders don't want to be short of short term volatility protection

  • Overnight expiry now captures FOMC - was 7.0 Tuesday, currently 11.0

  • Premium for straddle gains $20-pips, to $54-pips in either direction

  • 1-week is 6.25 from 5.8 and 1-month tests above last weeks 5.6 peak from 5.2

  • However, 1-month expiry risk reversals lacking any real directional premium

  • Shows market currently more concerned about FX volatility than direction

  • Huge expiries around 1.1800 might help contain FX pre Fed nL1N2P40AU



For more click on FXBUZ


EUR/USD overnight expiry implied volatility Click here

EUR/USD 1-3 month expiry option risk reversals Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Jul 28 - 02:34 AM
  • 1.3866 is the low water-mark for cable since Tuesday's jump to threaten 1.39

  • 1.3866 is five pips above a former resistance level (July 16 high)

  • Tuesday's jump to threaten 1.39 was attributed to fix-related buying of GBP

  • See: nL1N2P31L3. Break above 1.3900 could spur more short-covering

  • IMM specs recently flipped to first net GBP short since Dec nL1N2P20AZ

  • Seven-day downtrend in new UK COVID cases is positive for GBP nL8N2P33A7

GBPUSD Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Jul 28 - 02:14 AM
  • Tenkan and kijun lines are negative aligned, reinforcing the overall bias

  • Scope for a bearish resumption towards the 1.1695 Fibo

  • 1.1695 Fibo is 38.2% of the 1.0636 to 1.2349 (2020 to 2021) (EBS) rise

  • 1.1695 is where solid support might return

  • Looking to get short at 1.1835 in anticipation for a bearish resumption

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous update nL1N2P309X

Daily Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jul 27 - 11:37 PM

  • Steady in a 109.75-109.91 range - USD also little changed - Nikkei -1.1%

  • Japan gov't ministers share urgency over record COVID spike nT9N2OR00Y

  • BoJ July minutes confirmed that stimulus will be maintained nL4N2P402N

  • Charts; Tuesday's dip entered the cloud - 109.29-110.01 parameters today

  • Horizontal Tenkan and Kijun lines suggest consolidation rather than a trend

  • Rising cloud contained in mid July and should do so again

  • NY 109.58 low and London 110.17 top initial support resistance

For more click on FXBUZ























jpy 2 jul 28 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 27 - 10:15 PM

The near-term EUR/USD trend lower has run its course and more short-covering is likely if the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn't surprise markets by delivering a hawkish message at the end of its meeting on Wednesday.

The Fed will not be releasing economic forecasts or a dot-plot at this meeting so it's unlikely to be a major event for markets.
They are expected to reiterate that inflation is transitory
nL1N2OZ18D.

The risk for EUR/USD would be if the statement or Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals the tapering of their bond purchases may happen sooner rather than later, but most analysts believe they will wait for the September meeting to do that.

The euro is benefiting from investor outflows from emerging markets due to the impact of the Delta variant of the coronavirus on the developing world and China's widening regulatory crackdown nL4N2P3084nL1N2P329AnL1N2P30EK.

EUR/USD broke above the 21-day moving average for the first time since June 11 on Tuesday.It has traded back above the 21 DMA, currently at 1.1819, early Wednesday. The 5 DMA is now tilting higher and about to cross above the 10 DMA, which would signal that the move lower has reached a point of exhaustion.

A break above 1.1845 initially targets the July 12 high at 1.1884, with the short-covering correction potentially leading to 1.1948, the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2266-1.1752 decline.

For more click on FXBUZ


Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 27 - 09:40 PM
  • Australia Q2 CPI just released at our close to expectations in every category nAZN0R0W00

  • Inflation data highly likely going to move the needle for RBA expectations

  • AUD/USD traded to 0.7375 just before the release and is around 0.7365 now

  • Resistance and sellers eyed at 0.7400 and break targets 21-day MA at 0.7430

  • Support has formed at 0.7430/40

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Jul 27 - 08:05 PM

  • +0.05% after closing up 0.1% on softer USD, but capped by EUR/GBP selling

  • EU-UK agree to pause legal action on Northern Ireland issues nL8N2P36RW

  • A N.Ireland compromise would ease trade barrier fears - GBP positive

  • FOMC key, as Fed weigh optimistic economy v's Delta variant nL1N2OY1SA

  • Charts; 5 & 10 daily moving averages base, 21 DMA still head lower

  • 21 day Bollinger bands contract - mixed signals - downtrend hangs in

  • Close above under pressure 1.1820 21 DMA needed to end downside bias

  • Rejection of lower 21 day Bolli and 21 DMA break to target 1.1886 upper band

    For more click on FXBUZ


eur jul 28 Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 27 - 07:15 PM
  • EUR/USD opens 0.11% higher as USD eased against most major currencies nL1N2P322R

  • EUR moving higher against risk currencies as investors flee EM assets nL1N2P329A

  • EUR/USD traded above 21-day MA for first time since June 11

  • Trend lower exhausted as 5-day tilting higher and about to cross 10-day MA

  • A close above the 21-day MA (1.1819 today) targets July 12 high at 1.1884

  • Support has formed at 1.1750/60 where buyers are tipped

  • EUR/USD will likely consolidate ahead of Fed decision later today

  • For more click on FXBUZ










Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By John Noonan  —  Jul 27 - 06:43 PM
  • AUD/USD opens 0.20% lower as AUD fell against most major currencies

  • Fall in CNY and huge selloff in China equities weighing on sentiment nL1N2P30EKnL1N2P329A

  • AUD a proxy for EM and EM ETF (EEM) fell over 2.0% as IMF warns on EM growth nL4N2P3084

  • Aus CPI today but it is unlikely going to impact RBA expectations

  • AUD/USD buyers between 0.7330/40 where support is forming

  • Resistance is at the 21-day MA at 0.7430 and break would ease pressure

  • For more click on FXBUZ










aud/usd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jul 27 - 02:59 PM

The dollar fell against the yen, pound and euro on Tuesday but surged versus the yuan, as traders squared up ahead of the Fed and month-end while China-centric risk aversion helped the safe-haven Japanese currency.

Though the dollar benefited before the New York session from the Chinese stocks slide driven by regulatary concerns nL1N2P30EK, falling Treasury yields, as Wall Street's retreat, eventually hobbled the U.S. currency.

EUR/USD gained 0.19%, rebounding from earlier session lows of 1.1770 on EBS, which attracted buyers ahead of Monday's trough, propelling it past the 21-day moving average at 1.1824 for the first time since June 11, when it was at 1.2187.

Headline U.S. durable goods orders missed, but the core and upward revisions yielded a solid report.
Consumer confidence also beat nL1N2P312M but neither helped the dollar.

EUR/USD's recovery remains a correction of the downtrend since May unless it persists after the Fed and month-end.

GBP/USD, up 0.51%, surged into the London fixing from 1.3808 to 1.3884, a dollar loss not seen in other currencies at that time.

Risk-sensitive sterling overcame falling stocks, helped by Monday's improved UK COVID case update nL8N2P24ZI, the possibility that Britain's pandemic might be near its end nL8N2P32XR and strong July retail sales nL8N2P31V0.

Cable is approaching the 50% Fibo of its June-July dive and July high at 1.3911 from last week's 1.35725 trough.
Next week's BOE meeting will be eyed for any ramping up of rate hike expectations, now centered on Q2 2022.

USD/JPY fell 0.62%, taking it back below the last four days' lows, the 50% Fibo of the 109.07-110.59 July 19-23 recovery and into the daily cloud toward the 100-day moving average at 109.57.

Friday's 110.59 recovery high came shy of the July 14 swing high it needed to clear to target the 111.66 trend highs again.
Ten-year Treasury-JGB yields have been chopping lower since mid-May, making USD/JPY gains more dependent on rising stocks and the selling of yen to fund carry trades.

The cloud base rises to 109.29 on Wednesday for support ahead of the 109.07 July lows on EBS.

USD/CNH is up 0.68%, its biggest gain since February, to its highest since April with the CSI300 down 3.5% this week to its lowest since November.

Aussie fell 0.24%, caught in the China risk aversion while pandemic lockdowns persist in Australia.

Risk aversion pulled bitcoin and ether off Monday's recovery highs.

U.S.
tech company earnings reports after the bell Tuesday will be scrutinized after the Nasdaq slumped and VIX rose, with further weakening likely to lift the yen, particularly against high-beta currencies.

Wednesday's Fed focus centers on tapering discussions and expectations of a plan announcement at the September meeting balanced against resurgent pandemic threats.
Treasury yield curve flattening and continued pricing in of rate hikes by late 2022 suggest waning confidence that the next tightening cycle will be extensive or that current high inflation will be persistent.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Randolph Donney  —  Jul 27 - 02:46 PM
  • USD/JPY fell 0.62% on risk-off yen buying, broad long USD profit-taking

  • Tuesday's 110.385-9.585 range on EBS took out preceding 4 days' lows

  • Tenkan & 50% Fibo of 109.07-110.59 July 19-23 rebound @109.83 broken

  • Prices also back inside the cloud, Wednesday spanning 110.02-109.29

  • Low is by the 100-DMA at 109.57 that hasn't been closed below since Jan 28

  • Vols rising with VIX, risk-reversals skewed strongly toward yen calls

  • Bullish USD/JPY bias to start the week negated, all eyes on Fed Wednesday

  • But first, U.S. big tech earnings reports for risk flows

For more click on FXBUZ


Chart Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Jul 27 - 01:47 PM
  • EUR/USD sinks to 1.1770 on EBS in Europe a.m. on US$ & yen safe-haven buys

  • Pair nears 1.1790 into NY open, intense US$ selling ensues in NY morning

  • Drop in UST yields US10YT=RR, rally in eurodollars EDZ2 sink the US$

  • EUR/USD lifts above 10, 21-DMAs despite EUR/JPY & oil drops, USD/CNH gains

  • 1.1840 gets pierced and little pull back seen, sits nearby late in the day

  • Rising daily RSI, break of 10 & 21-DMA dents bearish technical signals

  • Fed, China, tech risks favor EUR/USD bears nL1N2P31FX

  • For more click on FXBUZ


eurusd Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Jul 27 - 01:30 PM

Barclays Research discusses its expectations for tomorrow's FOMC policy meeting.

"We expect the July meeting to be focused on strategy, including how to taper when the time comes and finalizing the design of the standing repo facility. On the “how” of tapering, we continue to believe that the committee will taper its purchases mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries simultaneously and proportionately. While we strongly doubt that participants have seen enough progress to signal tapering is forthcoming, we think the Fed’s communication will become incrementally more hawkish in the assessment of the balance of risks," Barclays notes. 

"Rather than saying the committee is “prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the committee’s goals”, we expect the July FOMC statement to say the Fed would be prepared to adjust policy if it “saw signs that the path of inflation or longer-term inflation expectations were moving materially and persistently beyond levels consistent with our goal," Barclays adds. 

Source:
Barclays Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Jul 27 - 11:39 AM
  • USD/CAD off early NorAm high slips to 1.2565 from 1.2594 NorAm high

  • USD offered into Europe close, likely position pruning pre-Fed Wednesday

  • Fed taper likely on hold while inflation remains transitory, COVID resurges

  • Commods copper and oil basically flat as China risk peels off

  • USD/CAD supt at 1.2540 Tues low, more firm supt 1.2530 50% of 1.2253-1.2807

  • Res at 10-DMA by 1.2595, 200-DMA at 1.2608, then 1.2717 upper 21-d Bolli

CAD Chart: Click here

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
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