• Cable falls to 1.2874 following UK budget update, OBR news

• 1.2874 is lowest level since March 11 (1.2874 was also low that day)

• 1.2881 was low before UK budget update, after cooler UK CPI data

• 1.2929 was Asia low, pre-UK inflation data (1.2904-1.2966 was Tuesday range)

• DMO to issue 299 billion pounds of gilts in 2025/26; 304 bln was forecast

• U.S. core capital goods orders unexpectedly drop in February

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

As Japan’s new fiscal year begins, BofA expects structural capital outflows to persist, with lifers selectively re-entering foreign bond markets, particularly hedged EUR-denominated debt. Meanwhile, unhedged flows are likely to favor buying dips in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, with EUR/JPY especially supported by Europe’s fiscal expansion and attractive yield differentials. On the rates side, BofA sees scope for JGB curve flattening, especially in the superlong end.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Structural Outflows to Continue 🌍📤

• Japanese investors, particularly life insurers, will likely resume foreign bond buying, though cautiously.

• Preference is for hedged EUR bonds, while unhedged dips in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are likely to attract demand.

2️⃣ EUR/JPY Supported by Europe’s Fiscal Outlook 💶🔼

• Europe’s fiscal expansion and bond issuance continue to attract Japanese investor interest.

• Structural outflows + EUR demand = tailwind for EUR/JPY upside.

3️⃣ FX and Rates Trade Recommendations 📊💱

• Buy 1yr EUR/JPY call to express bullish view on currency pair.

• Initiate 10s20s JGB curve flattener—expecting superlong JGB demand to return as yield spike moderates.

4️⃣ BoJ Uncertainty Keeps Long-Term Demand Cautious 🏦❓

• While lifers may return to the superlong end, intermediate and long-dated JGB demand remains tentative, as markets assess BoJ’s terminal rate and inflation trajectory.

Conclusion:

BofA expects Japan’s fiscal year reset to reignite structural outflows, with EUR/JPY benefiting most from portfolio reallocation and Europe’s fiscal backdrop. On the domestic front, curve flatteners in JGBs are favored, especially as superlong demand may re-emerge. Uncertainty around BoJ policy may limit the breadth of domestic bond demand, but selective foreign bond appetite and FX positioning offer compelling trades

• Video game retailer GameStop's shares rise ~14% to $28.96 premarket

• On Tuesday, GME said its board approved adding bitcoin as treasury reserve asset

• GME also reported Q4 net income of $131.3 mln, compared with $63.1 mln a year ago

• Posted Q4 sales of $1.28 bln, below analysts' est of $1.48 bln - LSEG

• GME closed 590 stores in 2024 and plans to close more stores in 2025

• Stock gained 68% in the last 12 months

(Reporting by Kamal Choudhury in Bengaluru)

• AUD/USD hits 0.6329, high since March 20, after extending north from 0.6279

• 0.6279 was Asian session low, after cooler than expected Australian CPI data

• RBA is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week (April 1)

• Macquarie pushes out RBA rate cut call to August from May

• 0.6364 was March 20 high - before AUD fell on Australian employment fall

• Australian government raises borrowing requirement after budget

AUDUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

March 26 (Reuters) - A strong up-trend since the middle of January has seen GBP/USD gain nearly 8% and corrective pullbacks have been small, but there are signs that a larger sterling adjustment might be building.

A breakdown on the daily chart to levels below the 10-day moving average, 1.2954, and the potential pull of a March 26 1.2442-44 Ichimoku cloud twist are increasing the risk of a weak close on the week.

Alarm bells are ringing on the weekly chart with long upper candlestick shadows suggesting significant demand fade. A false break of the weekly Ichimoku cloud top also highlights sterling's plight.

The weekly cloud top was breached in early March and the second week of the month saw a new trend high of 1.2990. Consecutive closes above the cloud bode well for the pound. However, a drop and close back inside the cloud last week and further weakness this week point to either a period of corrective consolidation or a trend reversal. Last week's 1.3015 trend high has been left high and dry.

A minimum correction taken off the 1.2100-1.3015 January-March rally comes in at 1.2799 and serves as a pullback target. The key 50% Fibonacci turning point, taken off the early 2025 bull run, is at 1.2558.
GBP/USD weekly candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Traders short EUR when plan to release German debt brake sparked Mar 3 rally

• Big bet on euro rising emerged after EUR/USD traded 1.0947 on Mar 11

• Traders short euro equiv $1.3 billion by Mar 4

• Traders net long $1.8 bln equiv by Mar 11 and long equiv $8.1bln by Mar 18

• Since Mar 11 EUR/USD reached 1.0955 then fell to 1.0778 on March 26

• When traders short EUR/USD it fell 1.08 to 1.0125

• Since traders significantly long pair the pair has dropped

•
EURUSD

(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Cable falls to 1.2918 as pound dips on lower than expected UK Feb CPI print

• 2.8% YY vs 2.9% forecast. 1.2918 = intra-day low (1.2904 was Tuesday's low)

• 1.2929 was Asia low, pre-UK inflation data. UK services CPI 5.0% vs 4.9% f/c

• Cooler headline CPI print is boost for doves advocating BoE rate cut in May

• Reeves to deliver UK fiscal update to MPs from 1230 GMT (after PMQs)

• GBP/USD resistance levels include 1.2966 (Tuesday's high), 1.2974 and 1.30

GBPUSD

(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• A Tues close below the daily cloud and new trend low at 0.8335 Wed

• Next key support is at 0.8333, the 100DMA

• The average is flat lining but has supported since March 6

• Daily RSI confirming the latest drop and 14-day momentum is negative

• Looking for a thin Ichimoku cloud, 0.8340-48 to stall rebounds

• We are short from 0.8408 with a trailing 0.8385 stop

• EUR/GBP Trading Page
EUR/GBP daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Continued USD/JPY buying into the Asian afternoon session

• USD/JPY 149.87 to 150.62 EBS, above 149.77-150.45 hourly Ichi cloud

• Off some since but downside limited, still below 151.00, 151.70 200-DMA

• Japanese importer buys at today's Tokyo fix, possible NISA-related flows

• Hedge funds also amongst buyers, likely tied to Nikkei positioning

• Adjustments of positions, portfolios likely into Japan fiscal year-end

• Fresh news on US tariffs, moves in Japan-US yields also to affect trading

• Hourly cloud now support along with tenkan and kijun at 150.24, 150.15

• 100 and 200-HMAs below cloud at 149.62, 149.35

• Related comment , also , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY and the JPY crosses see some bounce again in Asia on Japanese flows

• Importer demand again into today's Tokyo fix, maybe NISA flows pre-FY end

• USD/JPY 149.87 to 150.42 EBS, continuing bounce from 149.55 low yesterday

• US yields steady to firm, JGB yields firm on BOJ May hike expectations

• BOJ Gov Ueda remained hawkish in Diet testimony, said eyeing FX closely

• Asia mostly risk-on too, haven plays being unwound? Nikkei +0.3% @37,890

• Many players still see USD/JPY in downtrend with spot below 151.70 200-DMA

• Hourly chart shows spot still ensconced in 149.77-150.32 Ichimoku cloud

• On data, Japan Feb CSPI -0.5% m/m but still high +3.0% y/y, Jan +3.2%

• EUR/JPY 161.75 to 162.29 EBS and back below 162.38 200-DMA

• GBP/JPY 193.88 to 194.57, straddling its 200-DMA at 194.08, high o/n 195.00

• AUD/JPY 94.21 to 94.86, still within recent 91.78-95.74 range since March 11

• Related comment , also

• On BOJ , , , ,

• And , on CSPI , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


EUR/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole maintains a constructive outlook on NZD/USD, expecting a gradual move higher through 2024. The upside is supported by broad USD weakness, the potential for positive local data surprises, and a reallocation of capital from US to Asian assets. Additionally, New Zealand’s low trade exposure to US tariffs offers insulation compared to peers.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Capital Rotation Favors NZD 🌏💸

• Investors are diversifying away from US assets, with Asian markets—including New Zealand—seen as beneficiaries.

• NZD is expected to benefit from this broader capital flow dynamic.

2️⃣ Limited Tariff Impact on NZ Exports 🚫📦

• US reciprocal tariffs are expected to have minimal effect on NZ, despite its 15% GST.

• NZ has lower overall tariffs than the US, providing relative insulation in trade tensions.

3️⃣ Scope for Local Upside Surprises 📈

• Room remains for positive economic data surprises in New Zealand, which could add incremental NZD support.

4️⃣ Target Path for NZD/USD 🔢

• End-Q2: 0.58

• End-Q3: 0.58

• End-Q4: 0.60

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole expects NZD/USD to grind higher over 2024, targeting 0.60 by year-end. The outlook is driven by a weaker USD, potential NZ data surprises, and relative insulation from US tariffs, with investor rotation toward Asia-Pacific assets adding further tailwinds.

March 26 (Reuters) - The view in Tokyo is that USD/JPY will continue to trend lower despite speed bumps on the way. Many players are eyeing a test of the 146.55 March 11 low, probably after the turn of Japan's fiscal year at end-March. Shifting Bank of Japan expectations appear to be behind the USD/JPY bias with a number of Tokyo players beginning to expect a policy rate hike in May. The Totan Research/Totan ICAP poll shows the probability of a May hike at 25%, June at 32% and July at 27%. A major Japanese investment bank has also flagged this as a high possibility and is recommending USD/JPY sales on rallies, most recently on the move towards 151.00. USD/JPY hit a 150.95 high in Tokyo Tuesday.

Speculators are trading accordingly despite a build-up of long-yen positions, looking to sell USD/JPY into rallies and occasional blips higher like that seen Tuesday. As of March 18, IMM CTAs were long 122,964 contracts, down from 133,902 contracts the previous week but still massive . Japanese government bond yields have been rising alongside BOJ hike expectations with the two-year yield up to 0.885% and 10-year paper to 1.585% Wednesday, the latter matching the spike high on March 10 and both highest since October 2008.

USD/JPY faces key technical resistance at the descending 200-day moving average at 151.70 currently. A break above this level could derail the downtrend. Major support lies at the March 11 low and around 146.00 with 145.93 the low on October 4, 2024.

Previous comment , on the BOJ and .
USD/JPY:


(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)

• USD/KRW slides to 1464.4 from open 1467.0; looking shaky

• Wed close below 1464.3 disengages Bollinger uptrend channel

• That will spur some long capitulation, weighing it lower

• 21 DMA support at 1454.4 might then be tested in near-term

• USD/JPY tumble on Tues rocked USD/KRW and DXY, amid risk-on

• Kospi +0.2% after another rise on Wall St; S&P futures +0.2%
KRW:

(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• USD/JPY down hard from 150.95 Asia high to 149.55 early NY yesterday

• Some bounce, grind up since, Asia 149.87-150.00 EBS so far today

• US yields steady to firm, JGB yields firmer still on possible BOJ May move

• US Treasury 2s @4.007%, 10s @4.326%, JGB 2s @0.875%, 10s @1.580%

• USD/JPY trapped for now in 149.72-150.25 hourly Ichimoku cloud

• Hourly tenkan 149.77 below, kijun 150.25 above, 100/200-HMAs below cloud

• Few option expiries in area today - 149.00 $640 mln, 149.50 $328 mln

• Some chunky expiries on 151, massive $1.1 bln at 150.00 tomorrow

• Tokyo fix demand today? Nothing major flagged, exporters?

• Market again eyeing moves in US-Japan yields, news on tariff front

• Related comments , , ,

• Also , on US confidence, other data

• US markets , , ,
USD/JPY:


USD/JPY nearby option expiries into next week:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Steady after closing -0.1% with an inside day - the USD also slipped 0.1%

• EU trade chief meets with US officials to try to head off 'harmful' tariffs

• U.S. visit to Greenland is unacceptable, Danish prime minister says

• Charts- 5, 10 & 21-DMAs conflict, as 21-day Bollinger bands contract

• Daily momentum studies fall - uptrend stalled, leaving a neutral setup

• 1.0855 easing 10 DMA then the 1.0955 2025 high in March are first resistance

• The 1.0760 21 DMA is first support, then the pivotal 1.0727 200 DMA

• 1.0760 1.036 BLN and 1.0800 589 mln are the close March 26th strikes
Andy

(Andrew Spencer is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• AUD/USD rallied in London after AU federal budget was released overnight

• Deficit size deemed acceptable; surprise tax cuts considered inflationary

• Higher AU bond yields combine with poor U.S. consumer confidence to lift AUD

• AU Feb CPI due 0030 GMT Wed (Reuters poll 2.5% weighted CPI y/y)

• RBA meeting Mar 31-Apr 1 comes into focus, no OCR change expected

• Overnight AUD range 0.62785-0.6325, support 0.6260, resistance 0.6390 0.6415
AUD mng

(James Connell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Danske Bank maintains a bearish medium-term outlook on EUR/USD, citing structural USD strength tied to tighter monetary conditions, EU fiscal policy shifts, and persistent US outperformance. While near-term support from the industrial cycle and US recession concerns may offer temporary relief, Danske expects the pair to trend lower to 1.06 over the next 12 months.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Medium-Term Bearish View Maintained 📉

• Danske sees EUR/USD drifting lower due to a structurally stronger USD, driven by long-term monetary tightening needs.

• EU fiscal shifts may raise long-end yields, but this is not enough to offset broader USD strength.

2️⃣ Short-Term Support from Industrial Cycle and US Recession Narrative ⚙️

• The recovery in European industrial momentum could limit downside in the very near term.

• Overstated US recession risks remain in focus, temporarily weighing on the dollar.

3️⃣ Risk Allocation Shifts Are Structural 🌍

• Rotation away from US risk assets appears durable, offering limited and short-lived EUR support.

• Danske is cautious not to extrapolate this into a lasting EUR uptrend.

4️⃣ Updated Forecast Path 🔢

• 1M: 1.09

• 3M: 1.08

• 6M: 1.07

• 12M: 1.06

Conclusion:

Danske sees limited near-term upside for EUR/USD, but sticks to a bearish trajectory through 2025, with a target of 1.06 in 12 months. Structural USD strength, driven by tighter global financial conditions and EU fiscal dynamics, will likely outweigh transient themes such as industrial cycle rebounds or short-lived US growth concerns.

• USD/JPY drops back below 150 on lower Trsy yields, position-squaring

• Pair slid from 150.95 day's high to 149.55 EBS low in active turnover

• 2-week option skews over tariff deadline, Japan year-end widen

• Keeps slight bullish bias due to series of higher daily lows

• Capped by daily Bolli, wkly cloud top and Feb 7 low near 151

• Resist: 150.93-95 Feb 7 low and day's high, 151.30 Mar high

• Supp: 149.94 March 18 high; 149.36-66 9-day EMA, Mar 21 high

• Services PPI for Feb. is slated for Wednesday release
Yen

(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

(Corrects typo in headline)

• NY opened near 0.6315 after 0.62785 traded overnight, rally extended a bit

• 0.6325 traded as upbeat risk weighed on the US$, sellers emerged however

• Equities gave up gains, gold eroded most gains & AUD/JPY traded lower

• USD/CNH hold onto positive territory, US yield slip added weight

• AUD/USD sat near 0.6305 in NY's afternoon, traded up +0.27% late in the day

• Techs lean bullish; RSIs rising, pair above 55-DMA & daily cloud

• Australia February CPI is a data risk in Asia

• Feb. US durable goods remarks from Fed's Kashkari, Musalem are risks in NY
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

HSBC argues that the recent 3% rally in GBP/USD has likely run ahead of fundamentals, driven more by external factors—a weaker US outlook and Germany’s fiscal stimulus—than by UK-specific developments. With the April US tariff rollout approaching and the UK labor market showing signs of softening, HSBC warns that GBP/USD is underpricing downside risks, particularly from wages and trade disruption.

Key Points:

1️⃣ GBP/USD Rally Not Driven by UK Fundamentals 🇬🇧

• The recent GBP surge was mainly driven by US weakness and European fiscal optimism, not domestic strength.

• UK-specific drivers remain in the background, but HSBC expects that to change soon.

2️⃣ Tariff Risks Still Loom Large for UK Economy ⚠️

• UK resilience to tariff headlines may not last—as a small, open economy, the UK remains vulnerable to global trade shocks.

• Europe’s focus on defense spending has distracted investors from broader trade risks.

3️⃣ Labor Market Softening Despite Lagging Official Data 💼📉

• Survey-based data (PMIs, REC/KPMG jobs report) point to slower labor demand and wage growth.

• ONS wage data, though still firm, lags trends by 3–6 months—weakness may surface soon, especially after April’s NI hike for employers.

4️⃣ GBP/USD Underprices Domestic Downside Risks 💷📉

• Current levels do not reflect growing risks to UK wage dynamics or trade exposure.

• As attention shifts back to domestic vulnerabilities, GBP/USD could face renewed pressure.

Conclusion:

HSBC views the recent strength in GBP/USD as overdone, driven more by external themes than UK resilience. With tariffs set to bite in April and underlying labor market softness likely to emerge, the bank believes the pound is vulnerable to correction. GBP/USD is underpricing key downside risks, especially from wages and trade, and could struggle to hold recent gains as investor focus realigns.

• $CAD pares losses into Europe close, -0.11% at 1.4305; Tues range 1.4332-1.4271

• Yield slide has greater effect on Canada yields, provides slight boost for USD

• Oil moves to negative territory adds to Canada slide; copper gain added to +2%

• Near-term, Fed & BoC seen cutting rates in June; odds for both near 80%

• $CAD res 1.4332 Tues high, 1.4369 daily cloud base, 1.4401 the March 1 high

• Supt 1.4271 Tuesday low, 1.4265 rising 100-DMA, 1.4251 lower 21-d Bolli

CAD Chart:


(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Synopsis:

BofA highlights a growing, though unspoken, concern among central banks: the threat of stagflation. While policymakers avoided naming it directly, their forecasts of stickier inflation and softer growth suggest an increasingly complex policy mix—especially in light of upcoming US tariff decisions in April. This “S-word” scenario is becoming more central to FX markets, where the interplay between inflation, growth, and central bank reaction functions will shape G10 currency dynamics through mid-year.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Stagflation Concerns Whispered, Not Named 📉🔥

• Central banks are increasingly acknowledging higher inflation + weaker growth, though avoiding the term "stagflation."

• Fed Chair Powell revived the term “transitory”, but projections tell a more cautious story.

2️⃣ Tariffs Cloud the Outlook 🌐⚠️

• April tariff announcements from the US pose clear inflationary risks, while acting as a drag on growth.

• This uncertainty is broadly recognized across central banks, except for the SNB.

3️⃣ Policy Response in Focus for FX Markets 🏦💱

• FX volatility will hinge on how central banks balance inflation risks vs growth deterioration.

• The unemployment rate is emerging as a proxy for growth deterioration in real-time.

4️⃣ G10 FX to Be Driven by Diverging CB Reaction Functions ⚖️

• With inflation sticky and growth fragile, policy asymmetry across the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, and others will guide FX trends.

• Expect more sensitivity to macro surprises as markets re-price expectations on both rates and currencies.

Conclusion:

BofA warns that stagflation, though unnamed, is rising as a central theme in monetary policy deliberations. The interplay between tariffs, inflation, and weakening growth puts central banks in a tightening policy vise. For G10 FX markets, how each central bank reacts to this uncertain mix—and how quickly—will determine currency direction in the months ahead, making CB reaction functions the dominant driver of FX price action.

• USD/CAD drops back below 1.4300 to reach 1.4278

• The big dollar now eying support points at 1.4265 and 1.4239

• A drop under 1.4239, March 6 low, could open up the year's low at 1.4151

• Daily RSI and 14-day momentum are confirming the drop

• While above 1.4151 February 14 low the underlying bull run is still alive

• We bid by 1.4245 for a return to levels above 1.4300

• USD/CAD Trading Page
USD/CAD daily candle chart:

(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

Synopsis:

Goldman Sachs has upgraded its GBP forecasts across major currency pairs, citing better-than-expected UK growth, fiscal discipline, and limited direct exposure to US tariffs. Sterling has also benefited from political stability, a stronger services sector, and supportive rate differentials. With risks skewed in the UK’s favor compared to the Eurozone and signs of renewed investor appetite for GBP assets, Goldman now expects higher GBP/USD and lower EUR/GBP through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

Key Points:

1️⃣ Forecast Revisions: GBP Upgraded Across the Board 🔼

• GBP/USD

  • Old Forecasts: 1.25 (3M), 1.28 (6M), 1.30 (12M)

  • New Forecasts: 1.28 (3M), 1.32 (6M), 1.35 (12M)

• EUR/GBP

  • Old Forecasts: 0.86 (3M), 0.85 (6M), 0.84 (12M)

  • New Forecasts: 0.84 (3M), 0.83 (6M), 0.82 (12M)

2️⃣ Domestic Data and Political Factors Support GBP 📊

• UK services and labor markets are outperforming expectations.

• Government messaging on deficit-neutral defense spending has helped restore investor confidence.

3️⃣ Tariff Exposure Lower Than Eurozone ⚖️

• UK is less exposed to looming US tariffs, reducing downside risks relative to EUR.

• Tariff-driven risk-off flows are less likely to hurt GBP than EUR.

4️⃣ Rate Differential Still Attractive 💷

• BoE expected to cut rates more cautiously than the ECB, supporting UK front-end rates and attracting inflows.

Conclusion:

Goldman Sachs now expects stronger GBP performance across both USD and EUR pairs, driven by UK macro resilience, limited tariff exposure, and constructive investor sentiment. With GBP/USD revised up to 1.35 and EUR/GBP expected to slide to 0.82 by 12 months, the bank sees sterling as well-positioned for further gains, especially relative to the Euro.