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Jun 26 - 06:12 AM
GBP/USD - COMMENT-Bet Johnson Fails, Too, And GBP/USD Stalemate Endures
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 26 - 04:05 AM

Like PM Theresa May, Boris Johnson, her likely successor, is promising Brexit.
It's worth betting that won't deliver, either, leaving the pound treading water at familiar levels.
Volatility is low and looks set to remain so with a great deal of uncertainty restricting traders but the stimulus arising from the uncertainty encouraging risk taking.
Volatility for sterling is way below the double-digit levels that would be trading if a disorderly UK exit from the European Union looked likely.
Even if the split was agreed, vols would be a lot higher.
Instead, they have settled between 5.5 to 7.5 since April and may sink before the next Brexit deadline on Oct.
Traders recently got short pounds but few are making money.
The pound has only traded below 1.2600 and over 1.3300 on a handful of days in the past year.
A squeeze is likely, a sustained break isn't.

GBP vol and gbpusd chart Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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