Morgan Stanley Research previews the UK labor report on Thursday.

"After a level shift higher in March, we expect the jobless rate to remain at 5.0% in the three months to April, before rounding up to 5.1% in the next month's reading. We forecast a revised April payrolls change at -10k and May at -25k. In addition, we see vacancies as slipping to just below 700k in the three months to May," MS notes.

"On earnings, the AWE data suggests compositional effects are as negative as -0.5pp but there is a decent degree of uncertainty around the data. Mindful of this, we model the private sector regular AWE growth in April just about rounding down to 2.9%3M/Y, with whole economy ex-bonus pay growth coming in at 3.3%3M/ Y. We see total pay growth at 4.0%3M/Y, as some of the recent strength in bonuses as measured by AWE cools," MS adds.