• EUR/USD has finally broken below the 100-dma 1.0794 for 1.0778 (EBS)

• Close below 1.0807 50% Fibo of 1.0602-1.1139 rise, is bearish

• Next support resides at daily cloud 1.0761-52, 76.4% Fibo 1.0733

• Regaining 21dma at 1.0854 would negate the current bearish lean

• FX option risk reversals add downside strike risk premium this week

• 1-month 25 delta risk reversals 0.3 from 0.15

• 1-month implied volatility paid 5.1 from recent/3-year low 4.75

• Overnight expiry implied volatility regains pre Fed highs to flag NFP risk

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