Synopsis:

ANZ highlights that gold has seen tactical fund rotation into silver and platinum amid relative valuation gaps, but maintains that gold still offers superior macro and geopolitical protection. With strategic demand rebounding strongly, ANZ expects shallow corrections and sees gold as a buy on retracement into year-end.

Key Points:

• Tactical Rotation Evident:
  • Gold’s open interest fell 18% since May as investors tactically rotated into silver (+33%) and platinum (+49%).
  • Gold’s valuation remains historically expensive relative to these metals.

• Gold Still Superior Hedge:
  • Gold’s lower volatility (about half that of silver and platinum) makes it a more reliable safe haven.
  • Silver and platinum’s industrial demand exposure could trigger underperformance if the economic outlook deteriorates.

• Strategic Demand Strengthening:
  • Despite short-term outflows, gold-backed ETF holdings rose by 62 tonnes in June, reversing May’s liquidation.
  • This suggests that longer-term investors continue to accumulate.

• Technical View:
  • ANZ expects any price retracement to be shallow, with support near USD 3,200/oz, implying that dips should be bought into strength.

Conclusion:

While tactical flows have rotated into other precious metals, ANZ argues that gold remains the superior macro hedge, with strategic buying resuming and shallow corrections likely. Buy-on-dips remains the preferred strategy, positioning gold as a resilient play into year-end.