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Jun 03 - 12:12 PM

AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Could Extend Its Swift Rally Above 0.7000

By Christopher Romano  —  Jun 02 - 12:15 PM

AUD/USD's break above the 200-DMA and 76.4% Fibo of 0.7032-0.5510 led to swift gains toward 0.6900 and a likely move towards 0.7020/40 resistance.
Risk-on sentiment is being driven by investors' reduced U.S.-Sino concerns nB9N2D2002 and global economic recovery hopes nL4N2DF193.
Those factors drove emerging market currencies higher versus the greenback and sank USD/CNH towards 7.1000.
A still cautious but less pessimistic RBA nL4N2DF1DM and a massive short squeeze nL1N2DE1AB added to AUD/USD's buoyancy.
Copper's HGv1 rally, which AUD/USD has been highly correlated to recently, to a 2.5-month high bolsters the economic recovery view.
AUD/USD options investors are showing less fear of an AUD/USD downside move.
Risk reversals AUD1MRR=FN show vol premiums for puts over calls remain but the premium is quickly eroding.
Technicals highlight the upside risks as RSIs imply upside momentum remains and the 10-DMA is about to cross above the 200-DMA.
Immediate resistance sits near 0.6900 and 0.6940 but it might not be enough to stop AUD/USD bulls from testing January and December monthly highs, which sit in the 0.7020/40 zone.

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Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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