By eFXdata — May 18 - 03:00 PM
Societe Generale on the relative risk of recession in Europe and the US.
"But what is really striking, is how much less at risk the US is of recession, than Europe. Here too, there are savings to help cushion shocks, but the elephant-in-the-room shock is potentially much bigger," SocGen notes.
"And arguably, the monetary policy shift the ECB is signalling, ever more loudly, is far more significant than the one in the US – ECB rates have been negative for almost 8 years. If the economy can sustain positive rates within the next year, the euro will be a lot stronger when it happens. If….," SocGen adds.
Société Générale Research/Market Commentary