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Jun 17 - 02:36 PM
AUD/USD - COMMENT-AUD/USD Bears Throw Their Weight Around Ahead Of Fed
First appeared on eFXplus on Jun 17 - 12:20 PM

AUD/USD as bears appear in total control ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement after downbeat U.S. economic data, which forced the greenback and U.S. Treasury yields slightly lower, failed to rally the aussie.
AUD/USD hit a new 5-month low after it broke beneath May's low.
Despite elevated net-short aussie positions 0.6850 traded and broke any option barriers sitting there.
AUD/USD bears have RBA expectations and technicals bolstering their confidence.
Australian short-term rates markets price in a 50% chance of a cut on July 2 but have over 100% chances of a cut on August 6.
Rates markets have near 50 bps of cuts priced in for the remainder of 2019, which helps weigh down AUD/USD.
Technicals Highlight the downside risks as RSIs are biased down with no divergence.
The long upper wick on the June candle as well as today's candle suggest that bears are in charge.
AUD/USD longs will need help from the Fed and its Statement on Economic Projections.
Bulls will need a dovish stance from the Fed and a downbeat SEP to counteract RBA and technical influences.
Should the Fed suggest aggressive cuts are coming, AUD/USD's slide will likely reverse.
Resistance in the 0.7025/30 and 0.7065/70 will then be targeted.

chart: Click here

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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