NZD/USD down 0.75% as RBNZ cuts rates 25 bps to 5.25%, lowers OCR path

Sees OCR at 4.92% by Dec, implies more than 25 bps of further cuts by Dec

Sees official cash rate at 4.1% in Sept 2025 from 5.4% previously

Sees annual CPI at 2.4% in Sep 2025 from 2.2% previously

Markets had priced in probability of a cut at 69%, so reaction not drastic

25 bps Oct rate cut now priced in at 84% RBNZWATCH

NZD low of 0.6025 from 0.6084 day high, currently at 0.6045

Upside limited on dovish RBNZ, U.S. CPI now key; support 0.5995-0.6000

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