Citi discusses its expectations for the outcome of today's Georgia Senate election run-off, and its trading bias around the event.
"The Georgia Senate election run-off takes place today with two seats up for grabs. Our bias that Republicans will win both seats (or at least one) and thus retain their Senate majority and the status quo of a split congress. The likelihood of split seats remains slim though, with most voters likely to err in favor of both party candidates given how symmetric candidate platforms are," Citi notes.
"Market reaction is asymmetric in our view: a Republican win (including split of both seats) should see a minimal USD squeeze which is used as an opportunity to sell USDs; a Democrat sweep of both seats should see a larger USD sell-off. Therefore, we favor maintaining short USD positions into the election and would add to positions on any USD rallies," Citi adds.