Explore eFXplus Derived Data That Drive Results
A Data Partner of:
Refinitiv
Dec 16 - 06:55 PM

Barclays: Fed to Deliver 25bp Cut at December Meeting, Skip January

By eFXdata  —  Dec 16 - 03:00 PM

Synopsis:

Barclays expects the Fed to cut rates by 25bp at this week’s December meeting, aligning with market pricing, while signaling a slower pace of cuts in 2025 and skipping a January move.

Key Points:

  • December Cut Expected:

    • Despite stronger US data compared to the September SEP, Fed officials have not pushed back against market expectations for a 25bp rate cut.
    • A change in the Fed’s policy statement is likely, emphasizing a slower pace of cuts moving forward.
  • Revised Dot Plot Projection:

    • The 2025 dot plot may show only three cuts instead of four, with a risk of just two cuts.
    • Policy path adjustments reflect more easing now in exchange for tighter policy later in 2025.
  • Potential Dissent:

    • Governor Bowman is expected to dissent again, reflecting possible internal divisions on the appropriate policy stance.

Conclusion:

Barclays anticipates a 25bp cut this week with the Fed signaling a slowdown in its easing path, likely skipping January while keeping the door open for fewer cuts in 2025.

Source:
Barclays Research/Market Commentary

Subscription

  • eFXplus
  • End-user license agreement (EULA)

About

  • About
  • Contact Us

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
© 2025 eFXdata · All Rights Reserved
!