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May 23 - 12:55 PM

NZD: RBNZ Change of Call: 6% Peak, 50bps This Week - TD

By eFXdata  —  May 23 - 10:45 AM

TD Research summarizes its expectations for this week's RBNZ policy meeting.

"We lift our estimate of RBNZ terminal from 5.50% to 6% and expect the Bank to deliver a 50bps hike this week. The RBNZ's net migration forecasts and fiscal stimulus assumptions will likely be revised higher. Both add upside risks to domestic inflation. There is also no evidence that offshore Central Banks are making progress on bringing down core inflation," TD notes.

However, the risk to our 50bps call is the Bank viewing monetary policy as sufficiently restrictive. Given monetary policy is contractionary, the Bank may opt for a 25bps hike," TD adds.

TD Bank Research/Market Commentary


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