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Jun 03 - 11:55 AM

GBP/USD - COMMENT-Sterling Shrugs Off US Payrolls Beat, Awaiting Inflation Impetus

By Paul Spirgel  —  Jun 03 - 10:05 AM

GBP/USD weakened on Friday, though only briefly due to surprisingly strong non-farm payrolls, and was likely to remain constrained in either direction until a range-breaking catalyst emerges, such as next week's U.S. CPI or mid-month central bank meetings.

Cable briefly fell to a post-payrolls session low of 1.2521 before returning to pre-data levels.

Though unexpectedly strong, the jobs data is unlikely to shift Fed policy perceptions, thus keeping GBP/USD mired within its recent 1.2667-1.2321 range bounded by triple tops and bottoms.

The Fed's inflation focus makes next Friday's May U.S. CPI and earnings data a key sterling test, with core forecast to slide to 5.9% from 6.2% and headline steady at 8.3% y/y.
Any below-forecast results would increase the debate over a September pause in U.S. rate hikes.

Recent comments by Fed voter Loretta Mester nS0N2UR083 and non-voters Thomas Barkin nS0N2UR081 and Mary Daly nS0N2UR07W on balance sheet reduction's effects on demand may bolster the Fed pause case.

But, absent Fed or BoE adjustments to guidance GBP/USD, should remain rangebound, though with greater risk to weakness due to aggressive Fed policy.

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Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary

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