• USD/JPY price action remains skittish, keeping markets alert to intervention risks

• Spot hit an intra-day low of 160.48, but volume is well below those seen during prior interventions

• JP FinMin issues fresh verbal warning, notes close coordination with U.S. on forex, even during U.S. holiday

• Expect traders to stay cautious on the long side given asymmetric downside risk from possible intervention

• Should keep near-term asymmetrical skew leaning towards a sharper corrective move

• A coordinated intervention with the U.S. would materially increase impact versus unilateral MoF action

• Initial support sits at 159.63–160.01 (55DMA cluster)

• In a credible intervention scenario, downside could extend toward 156.50-157.00, aligning with the 200DMA zone
USD/JPY 15 min


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• EUR edging higher but still capped ahead of 1.1472 (post-NFP high)

• Market reluctant to chase topside - softer payrolls insufficient to sustain upside momentum

• Latest uptick not corroborated by EU–US rate spreads given no meaningful compression

• Sintra takeaways: growing ECB faction comfortable with holding rates steady

• Recent downside inflation surprises also raise the bar for any additional ECB tightening

• Macro backdrop remains a modest headwind for EUR

• Resistance: 1.1500, then 1.1580 (pre-Fed level)

• Support: 1.1350–60, with a deeper cushion at 1.1300–20
eu vs spreads


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD rises to 0.6949 as global stock gains buoy risk-sensitive AUD

• 0.6949 is the highest level since June 23 (0.7003 was the high that day)

• Asian stocks climb; Nikkei up 1.47%. Germany's Dax hits record high

• 0.6911 was Asia low. 0.6943 was Thursday high, after USD fell on NFP data

• CFTC data Monday to show if net AUD short rose again in week to June 30

• Australia flags risk to iron ore price from China state buyer

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• Some speculation of possible BOJ rate checks but still seen unlikely

• USD/JPY slump to 160.49 more likely on market nervousness over possibility

• Asia retracement high early 161.52 EBS, USD/JPY heavy and off since

• Thin conditions on US holiday seen by many as perfect timing for FX action

• Of course this on assumption Japan's MOF wants USD lower, punish speculators

• As was case yesterday, sales again more likely on algos, long liquidation

• Could be foreign investors hedging Japan stock buys taking off hedges too

• Nikkei off earlier today to 67,609.49 before bouncing to 69,788.03

• Nikkei closed TSE trading today at 69,744.07

• Market likely to remain nervous into London/European trading

• Related comment , also ,
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:


Nikkei 225 daily:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/CNH slides to 6.7812, taking a peek at 61.8% Fibo support

• Breaks 21 DMA support 6.7839 which previously prompted rebounds

• If Fibo floor at 6.7790 cracks, more room till next one at 6.7680

• Fresh weakness appears as USD/JPY drops below 161.00

• Heading into weekend, JPY intervention fears are on the rise

• Japan FX officials might capitalize on thin US holiday liquidity
CNH


(Ewen Chew is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• FX options expire at 10-am New York/1400 GMT on Friday July 3

• EUR/USD: 1.1325-35 (960M), 1.1340-50 (943M), 1.1370-75 (2.7BLN)

• 1.1380-85 (947M), 1.1390-00 (1.15BLN), 1.1425-30 (897M), 1.1445-50 (967M)

• 1.1460-65 (438M), 1.1475-80 (504M), 1.1500 (2.03BLN), 1.1525 (298M)

• 1.1550 (355M), 1.1600 (2.02BLN)(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• USD/JPY choppy in early Asia trading, day's range of 160.92-161.52 EBS then

• Market has since settled with pair holding above 160.91 daily Ichimoku kijun

• Kijun briefly pierced to downside overnight on move to 160.64

• Next support 160.48 low June 18, then daily lows to 159.51 June 11

• Option expiries today include 160.00 $1.3, 160.50 $1.2 and 161.50 $1.4 bln

• Whether Japan's MOF intervenes tonight maybe key to USD/JPY from here

• US holiday today, thin conditions providing MOF with great opportunity

• This especially if MOF is really out to punish speculators

• Some JPY short-covering seen yesterday but market still seen very short yen

• Weak US jobs data, fading Fed rate hike expectations helped yen but enough?

• No hints from MOF of action however, only usual mantra from FinMin Katayama

• JPY crosses heavy in Asia, dragged lower by USD/JPY yesterday

• EUR/JPY 184.25-41 EBS, back below descending 200-HMA at 184.52

• Also below 100-DMA at 184.67, 184.95-99 daily Ichimoku cloud

• CHF/JPY 200.24-85, above 200.07 daily Ichi tenkan but below 201.03-87 cloud

• Also below 200.76-79 hourly Ichimoku cloud now but could break back above

• GBP/JPY more buoyant than other crosses, 214.66-215.44, downside limited

• Off 216.05 high yesterday but support from 214.19/25 daily kijun/tenkan

• Ensconced for now in 215.19-64 ascending hourly Ichimoku cloud

• AUD/JPY up some too from 111.11 low yesterday, Asia 111.24-82

• Still generally heavy, holding mostly below 111.73-113.31 daily Ichi cloud

• Also below 111.92-112.03 soon to descend hourly Ichimoku cloud

• NZD/JPY 91.64-92.05, up some from 91.53 low yesterday, 91.00 June 26

• Still well below 93.02-64 daily Ichi cloud but into 91.92-92.22 hourly cloud

• Fate of JPY crosses seen dependent on USD/JPY moves, whether MOF intervenes

• Related comment , also , on Japan data

• On MOF-speak , , for more click on [FXBUZ]

USD/JPY hourly:


GBP/JPY hourly:


AUD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD up 0.15% in Asia as dip buyers take advantage of early weakness

• Supported by repricing of Fed rate hike bets after soft U.S. jobs data

• Probability of a September hike falls to 54% from 67% before the data

• Bulls regain confidence after recovery from 200-day MA at 0.6865

• Interim support at 0.6885-90, resistance 0.6945-50, 0.6980

• Asia range 0.6911-0.6935
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• Australian gold miners rise as much as 5.3%, gaining their most since June 15

• Bullion rose more than 2% overnight after weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data reduced expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes this year [GOL/]

• Sector heavyweight Evolution Mining adds 4.5% and Northern Star Resources gains 6.8%

• YTD, sub-index down over 14%

(Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru)

• USD/JPY saw a big slump late Asia yesterday, thoughts of BOJ rate checks

• Seems more a matter of long liquidation on Japan intervention threat

• Move fuelled by view US payrolls would be weak, MOF action post-data release

• US payrolls indeed proved to be weak, left USD/JPY lower but no FX action

• From 162.84 Wednesday and earlier Asia high yesterday of 162.60 to 160.90

• Post-payrolls saw low of 160.64 EBS in NY, Asia so far today 161.13-47

• Up some with market confirmation of no Japanese FX action yet

• Demand still strong on dips/falls from Japanese importers, retail/NISA flows

• Less foreign Japan investment currency hedges with Nikkei well off highs

• Support from area of daily Ichimoku kijun at 160.91 despite push below

• Resistance from hourly Ichi kijun at 161.62, 200/100-HMAs at 161.87/162.08

• Large option expiries to contain USD/JPY especially given US holiday?

• At 160.00 $1.3 bln, 160.50 $1.2 bln, some 161.00-15, 161.50 $1.4 mln

• Related comments , , also

• US markets , , ,

• On Japan's MOF , , US payrolls
USD/JPY daily:


USD/JPY hourly:

(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• AUD/USD to stay supported on dips in Asia after closing 0.4% higher Thu

• Boosted by weak U.S. jobs growth, receding Fed rate hike bets

• September Fed rate hike chances drop to 55% from 67% ahead of data

• AUD rally capped by AUD/JPY sales as yen gains on intervention fears

• Recovery from 200-day MA at 0.6865 hints of base formation

• Interim support at 0.6885-90, resistance 0.6945-50, 0.6980

• Thursday range 0.68845-0.6943
AUD:

(Krishna Kumar is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)

• NY opened near 1.1410, the pair fell to 1.1396 in early action, buyers then emerged

• Bulls charged ahead after the downbeat US June employment report

• USD was sold, US yields fell & US-DE spreads

tightened

• USD/CNH drop to 6.7840, rallies in gold, silver & equities helped EUR/USD hit 1.1472

• The pair made an 8-session high then pulled back as the USD firmed & risk softened

• EUR/USD dipped below 1.1440 in NY's after but still traded up +0.52% late in the day

• Rally above the 10-DMA and rising RSIs are bullish technical signals
eurusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• NY opened near 0.6895, the pair fell towards 0.68858 early, buyers then emerged

• Downside surprise to US June jobs report weighed down USD, US yields

• Gold, silver, copper & equities rallied while USD/CNH fell to 6.7840

• AUD/USD spiked up, rallied above the 10-DMA, hit a 7-session high of 0.6943

• Stocks, gold, silver then gave back some gains & the USD firmed up a bit

• AUD/USD pulled back from the high, neared 0.6925 late, was up +0.41%

• Rising daily, monthly RSIs & move above the 10-DMA give bulls some comfort
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• GBP$ firm in NY afternoon +0.64% at 1.3355; Thursday range 1.3385-1.3276

• Pair bolstered by early USD/JPY selling, gains added to after soft U.S. payroll data

• Soft payroll data supports less-hawkish Fed policy path, prods likely GBP short unwind

• LSEG's IRPR indicates 65% odds for Sept hike, +31bp by Dec FOMC; BoE +17bp by Dec MPC

• UK political, fiscal concern have tempered considerably, remove headwind for GBP gains

• GBP$ res 1.3385 post -NFP high, 1.3400 psychological lvl/200-DMA, 1.3449 Jun 17 high

• Supt 1.3297 Early NorAm pullback low, 1.3262 daily conversion line, 1.3213 June 30 low

GBP$ Chart:


(Paul.Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

Credit Agricole CIB Research revises down its AUD/USD forecasts and now targets the pair at 0.69 in Q3 and Q4.

"The AUD is losing its terms-of-trade and interest rate advantages faster than we expected. The ceasefire between the US and Iran is leading to a quick retreat in global energy prices weakening the prices for Australia’s LNG and coal exports. China’s soft economic growth is leading to a further retreat in iron ore prices. The threat of higher US rates is leading to weaker gold prices. These factors have led to a plunge in Australia’s commodity terms of trade back close to pre-US-Iran war levels and the AUD is yet to catch up ," CACIB notes.

"Of course, there still could be a resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran, but it is likely that the positive effect on the AUD from the spike in energy prices would be more than offset by the negative effect from the rise in risk aversion, in our view," CACIB adds.

• USD/CAD trades heavy post-payrolls, broad USD offered tone

• Spot printed 1.4151 intraday low before stabilising, 1.4140 remains key near-term support

• Failure to break cleanly lower keeps pair in consolidation mode near-term

• Decisive move through 1.4140 opens 1.4000 (pre-Fed level), then 1.3930–1.3967 support zone

• U.S. shifts to annual USMCA review, tail risk of exit removed, but policy uncertainty is elevated

• Initial resistance at 1.4250. Closing above would negate pullback risk
USDCAD hourly


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

MUFG Research previews the six G10 central banks meeting during the month of July.

"Following the nine G10 central bank meetings in June, this month will be a little less active although July will end with a flurry of key meetings. Six G10 central banks meet this month starting with the RBNZ (8th) which didn’t meet in June. Pricing for a hike by the RBNZ has eased somewhat since the drop in crude oil prices extended further in June but the implied probability of a 25bp hike remains close to 70%. The BoC meets a week later (15th) with policy likely to remain on hold. Similarly, the ECB at its meeting (23rd) will keep its policy stance unchanged following the hike in June," MUFG notes.

"The final week of July will see the FOMC meet (29th) followed by the BoE (30th) and then the BoJ (31st) with all three central banks likely to keep policy unchanged. Amongst these three, pricing for a hike is currently highest for the Fed with an implied probability of 32%," MUFG adds.

EUR/USD climbed to an 8-session high on Thursday, driven by a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar and interest rates after disappointing economic data reduced expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hike. June non-farm payrolls came in well below expectations at 57k, versus estimates of 110k, while May's figure was revised down significantly from 172k to 129k. The labor force participation rate also slipped to 61.5%, signaling that the U.S. labor market is cooling rather than overheating.

Combined with expectations for moderating inflation , the weak jobs data pushed U.S. yields and short-term rates lower as markets repriced Fed policy. Investors have now shifted their rate hike expectations from late 2026 to early 2027, suggesting the dollar may struggle to find upward momentum in the near term. This was reflected in a tightening of the U.S.-German 2-year yield spread and a rally in March 2027 SOFR futures — moves that, if sustained, would further weigh on the dollar relative to the euro.

From a technical perspective, the persistent shift toward a delayed rate hike timeline could bring EUR/USD's downtrend from its January high to an end. The pair may now enter a more range-bound phase over the summer months, with traders eyeing a broad trading zone between 1.1300 and 1.1800.
eurusd


deus


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

CIBC Research reviews the US jobs report for the month of June.

"Hiring dipped lower in the US in June, with 57K jobs added below the 113K consensus expectation. May was revised down from 172K previously to 129K. The unemployment rate ticked down a touch to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, as the labour force shrank by over 700K in June. This led to the labour force participation rate plunging lower to 61.5% from 61.8% in May. Private sector added 49K jobs, led by health care/social assistance adding 47K and professional and business services (36K), leisure and hospitality contracted by 61K, more than reversing the 40K gains from the previous month.  Government only added 8K jobs. Local government which experienced a 33K increase in the previous month, only added 2K in June. Average weekly hours worked remained the same in June as in May. Wage growth remained at 0.3% m/m, same as May," CIBC notes.

"Overall, the report suggests that the US labor market remains in balanced territory, with unemployment rate remaining low at 4.2% as labour demand roughly matches labour supply," CIBC adds.

Bank of America Global Research discusses the impact of the repricing of Japanese rates on global rates markets.

"The repricing of Japanese rate markets has been considerable and the bear steepening of the JPY curve at times pronounced. Correlation of 10y and 30y swap rates between Japan, the US and the Euro Area (EA) have increased.

However, evidence of the repricing of Japan driving global rates markets is limited. Granger causality tests fail to suggest that Japan is driving global 10y and 30y yields. The beta between Japanese rate markets and US and EA is below historical averages," JPM note.

"The R-squared of our standard term premium estimate has declined in EUR and USD since the sell-off in JPY rates started. This "unexplained" variance could be indicative of JPY spill-over effects. However, term premium has declined or remained unchanged over the last year in EUR and USD, while increasing sharply in JPY.

What has been driving the sell-off across global rate markets is the normalisation of monetary policy cycles post-pandemic. Japan is not driving global rate markets higher, the BoJ and Japan rates are playing catch-up to other rate markets as Japan escapes the deflation and liquidity trap of the last few decades," JPM adds.

• AUD/USD traded 0.6885-0.6911 overnight, NY opened near 0.6900, up +0.09%

• Broad-based USD selling, UD/CNH's drop & rallies in gold, silver help buoy AUD/USD

• The pair remains in its recent consolidative range which is a bearish signal

• AUD/USD's hold below the 10- & 21-DMAs reinforce the bearish tech sentiment

• The pair's hold above the 200-DMA and rising daily RSI give bulls some comfort though

• US June payroll report & weekly jobless claims data are risks in NY's morning
audusd


(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

• U.S.-listed shares of gold miners up premarket, tracking rise in bullion prices [GOL/]

• Spot gold up 1% at $4,069.52 per ounce, after touching its highest level since June 23 in the previous session

• Gold prices climb bolstered by soft jobs data, weaker oil and comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve chair that suggested inflation risks have eased, ahead of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data

• Top miners Newmont , Barrick Mining up 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively

• South African miners Gold Fields rises 3%, Harmony Gold jumps 2.6%, AngloGold Ashanti gains 1% and Sibanye Stillwater up marginally

• Canadian miners Agnico Eagle Mines rises 2.1% and Kinross Gold adds 2.8%

(Reporting by Pooja Menon in Bengaluru)

• EUR catching a modest bid as broad USD tone softens with spot back above 1.14

• USD offered mainly via JPY strength, with USD/JPY pullback driving the move

• Despite the squeeze higher, topside follow-through in EUR remains unconvincing

• EUR/GBP extends lower, printing fresh 1yr lows after clean break of 200-week MA; weighs on EUR

• Macro backdrop not helping EUR with ECB leaning less hawkish alongside softer inflation prints

• Focus now shifts to U.S. payrolls as the key near-term catalyst for directional conviction
EURUSD hourly chart


Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. (The views expressed are his own). ((Email: ))

• AUD/USD hits 0.6902 intra-day high as yen jumps against U.S. dollar

• U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT: June NFP forecast at 110k; jobless rate f/c 4.3%

• USD might weaken on NFP miss, with scope for AUD/USD to rise to 0.6930

• 0.6930 was Tuesday peak (scaled at the quarter-end London fix)

• AUD/USD support levels include 0.6883 (Wednesday low) and 0.6865 (200DMA)

• Australia posted goods trade deficit of A$3 billion in May, largest since 2015

AUDUSD


(Robert Howard is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)