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May 12 - 06:55 AM

EUR/USD - COMMENT-EUR/USD Clues From The FX Options Market

By Richard Pace  —  May 12 - 05:10 AM

Price action in forward looking FX options might offer some clues for those worried about EUR/USD breaking below the base of its recent 1.0900-1.1100 range.

Options thrive on volatility and use implied volatility to gauge expectations and set premiums.
Any disparity between implied and actual volatility therefore creates a trading opportunity.
Risk reversals are an option contract that benefits from volatility in a particular direction and will demand an implied volatility premium to reflect that.

Benchmark 1-month expiry implied volatility was trading 1-year lows at 6.9 early Thursday, it later reached 7.2 as 1.0900 was tested but has since settled at 7.1, so certainly no panic there for now.
One-month expiry 25 delta risk reversals had lost almost all of their EUR put/USD call (EUR/USD downside) implied volatility premium over recent weeks, but now demand a 0.2 premium for those downside strikes.

Those modest price increases, in combination with reports of low demand for downside strike hedges, suggest that while market makers are showing caution, there's been no panic to hedge deeper or sudden EUR/USD losses as yet.
However, those wanting to hedge that risk might look at options for protection while premiums remain low.

For more click on FXBUZ

Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary


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