Credit Agricole CIB Research on the scope for revising its GBP forecasts (currently at 1.31 for GBP/USD and 0.86 for EUR/GBP by year-end).

"The GBP’s resilience vs the USD and its outperformance vs the EUR so far this year has surprised us and reflects the positive impact of several key drivers that, if sustained, could pose risks to our current GBP/USD and EUR/GBP forecasts.

The UK economy has proven to be more resilient so far in 2026 than forecasted by us and the market....UK markets expect four rate hikes in the coming months, making the BoE one of the most hawkish central banks and the GBP one of the most attractive high-yielders in G10...France’s fiscal problems continue to contrast with the ‘prudence’ of the Burnham government and boost the appeal of the GBP as a safe- haven EUR-proxy," CACIB notes.

"We continue to assess the impact of the above drivers on our FX outlook. We would delay any decision on the GBP forecasts, however, until after next week’s Autumn statement and the BoE policy meeting the week after," CACIB adds.