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EUR / USD
GBP / USD
USD / JPY
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AUD / JPY
AUD / NZD
EUR / CHF
EUR / GBP
EUR / JPY
GBP / JPY
By eFXdata  —  Nov 08 - 10:45 AM

Synopsis:

According to BofA’s latest FX and Rates Sentiment Survey, investors maintain a preference for short US rates and long USD positions, aligning with expectations for fiscal expansion and higher tariffs under the new policy mix. However, with recent adjustments in rates pricing and moderate USD positioning, near-term uncertainty over the scope and timing of tariff hikes may lead to a temporary USD pause.

Key Points:

  • Investor Sentiment: Short US rates and long USD are popular trades among investors anticipating fiscal expansion and elevated tariffs.
  • Rates and Duration Positioning: With US fiscal policy risks now better priced, investor interest in duration longs has moderated to neutral in recent months.
  • USD Positioning: While USD longs have grown, they remain below historical extremes, as investors weigh uncertainties around tariff implementation.
  • Potential USD Pause: The current lack of clarity on the scale and timing of tariff hikes could temper immediate USD bullish momentum.

Conclusion:

BofA observes strong sentiment for short US rates and long USD, yet near-term USD gains may slow as markets await more concrete details on tariff policy. This measured outlook suggests a potential pause in USD momentum, even as the broader policy backdrop supports continued investor interest in USD and short rates.

Source:
BofA Global Research
By Rob Howard  —  Nov 08 - 09:40 AM
  • EUR/GBP elicits support by 0.8307 after falling from 0.8325 (intra-day high)

  • 0.8307 was 1-week low Thursday, after GBP rose on relatively hawkish BoE cut

  • Trump tariff fears are helping weigh on the euro more than the pound

  • Trump last week said the EU would "pay a big price" if he was elected

  • Citi went short EUR/USD on Thursday, initial target 1.0630, stop at 1.0915

  • BoE must look past budget's temporary inflation hit, Pill says nL8N3MF1KI

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 08 - 09:30 AM

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole anticipates that Trump’s second term could initially support USD strength due to expected fiscal stimulus and potentially sticky inflation from tariffs. However, by late 2025, the USD may weaken as the US growth advantage fades, the Fed’s rate cuts accumulate, and Trump’s weak-USD stance gains traction in a slower economic environment.

Key Points:

  1. Lessons from Trump’s First Term:

    • Fiscal stimulus might improve chances of a US soft landing, while trade tariffs could make inflation more persistent, supporting a less dovish Fed stance.
    • Currency depreciation attempts by US trade partners in response to tariffs could lift USD further, as happened during Trump’s first term.
  2. USD Strength Dynamics and the “Impossible Trinity”:

    • In Trump’s first term, attempts to talk down the USD conflicted with inflationary policies and a resilient economy, which led the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance, supporting USD gains.
  3. Key Differences in 2024-2025:

    • The US economy is currently slowing, and new tariffs could intensify downside growth risks.
    • Unlike the first term, Fed easing is expected to continue despite potentially sticky inflation, especially as trading partners’ currencies are already weaker, limiting their ability to devalue competitively.
  4. Long-Term USD Outlook:

    • Credit Agricole expects USD strength to persist in early 2024, but it could face declines by late 2025 as relative US growth wanes, Fed cuts increase, and Trump’s weak-USD doctrine gains impact.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole sees initial USD support in Trump’s second term but expects USD to lose ground by 2025 as Fed cuts accumulate and US growth moderates. Near-term focus will be on US CPI, retail sales, and Fed comments for further insights on the “Trump trade.”

Source:
Crédit Agricole Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 08 - 08:31 AM

Synopsis:

ANZ expects USD strength to moderate in the short term, as extended long positioning unwinds and year-end seasonality sets in. Meanwhile, the GBP could face challenges with key data releases ahead, especially if growth and employment figures show weakness, though recent BoE caution has lent the pound some support.

Key Points:

  • USD Outlook:

    • Post-election USD gains are softening as long positions ease and seasonal risk-on sentiment emerges.
    • Trump’s promises on spending and tariffs support a USD-positive narrative, but global economic softness in the EU and China keeps the DXY firm.
    • While improved PMIs in China and the EU hint at recovery, sustained global growth could shift the USD trajectory downward by 2025.
    • Near-term CPI data will be crucial, with a higher reading potentially supporting USD strength, while weaker data may be overlooked for now.
  • GBP Outlook:

    • GBP gained modest support from a cautious BoE 25bps cut and the USD’s pullback.
    • The BoE’s upward revisions for growth and inflation in 2025-2026 reflect fiscal impacts, with Governor Bailey signaling a measured easing approach.
    • Upcoming labor and growth data, including wage growth and Q3 GDP, will be closely watched. Weak readings could pressure GBP on crosses, especially with year-end trends favoring risk-sensitive currencies like AUD and NZD.

Conclusion:

ANZ projects USD to soften slightly in the near term, supported by seasonal factors and easing long positions, while GBP could face downside if growth and employment data disappoint. Stronger-than-expected US CPI may add marginal USD support, but softer UK data could weigh on GBP amid broader risk-on currency gains.

Source:
ANZ Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 08 - 06:50 AM
  • A volatile week for USD/CAD and set to end near mid-range

  • Wed's price extremes set the range, 1.3817-1.3958

  • Choppy price action has clouded direction

  • Despite Wed's rally the market is trading clear below its 2024 1.3959 high

  • Weekly chart set to record a bearish harami (inside week)

  • On balance, the CAD holds an advantage with a USD/CAD reversal the risk

  • USD/CAD Trading Page TGM2345

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Jeremy Boulton  —  Nov 08 - 05:50 AM
  • EUR/USD 1.0448-1.1276 in 2024 - second smallest range on record

  • So far 2023 range is smaller at 1.0601-1.1214

  • In November pair trades 1.0683-1.0937 and it was supposed to be busy

  • Start Fed easing cycle and U.S. election spurred a lot of speculation

  • Instead EUR/USD returned to the centre of 2023's range

  • Strong chance that traders pare bets and year ends quietly nL1N3MF0D2

  • Plunging volatility may set tone for rest of this year nL1N3MF0C3

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 08 - 05:10 AM
  • The daily chart shows failures on both sides, which could see consolidation

  • Spot failed below the 1.0746 Fibonacci level, trapping bears

  • 1.0746 Fibo is a 76.4% retrace of the 1.0602 to 1.1214 2024 (EBS) rise

  • It also failed above tenkan line, 1.0810, putting bulls in a bind

  • As 14-day momentum flipped to negative Wed, the bias is slightly bearish

  • EUR/USD Trader TGM2334. Previous nL1N3ME0GL

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Martin Miller  —  Nov 08 - 03:35 AM
  • USD/JPY failed above the broken 153.41 Fibo, leaving a "bull trap"

  • 153.41 Fibo is a 61.8% retrace of the 161.96 to 139.58 2024 (EBS) drop

  • A bull trap is set when a market breaks above a tech level but then reverses

  • It is usually a bearish sign and points to a likely new top in the market

  • Expect losses to the kijun line, now at 150.32

  • USD/JPY trader TGM2336. Previous update nL1N3ME0HB

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 08 - 03:15 AM
  • Big swings have clouded direction this week

  • Daily momentum studies have held close to neutral levels

  • Underlying risk remains skewed to the downside but is fading

  • The daily cloud base contains the topside, currently 1.3050

  • A 38.2% Fibo off the 1.3434-1.2835 drop is at 1.3064

  • Weekly doji star highlights indecision and a degree of equilibrium

  • The star doji can warn of a reversal: a shift of supply to demand

  • GBP/USD trader TGM2338

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Rob Howard  —  Nov 08 - 02:35 AM
  • Cable has traded a 41 pip range since 25 bps Fed cut Thursday; 1.2949-1.2990

  • 1.3008 was high before Fed cut, after GBP rose on relatively hawkish BoE cut

  • Consensus expectation is for BoE hold in Dec, and another 25 bps cut in Feb

  • Barclays then forecasts 25 bps BoE cuts in May, June, August and Sept 2025

  • 1.2835 was GBP/USD 12-week low on Wednesday, after USD jumped on Trump win

  • Powell says he will not quit even if asked by Trump (his term ends May 2026)

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Peter Stoneham  —  Nov 08 - 02:05 AM
  • EUR/USD: 1.0700 (971M), 1.0750 (1.0BLN), 1.0780-85 (1.7BLN)

  • 1.0795-00 (2.2BLN), 1.0810-15 (406M), 1.0825-35 (851M)

  • 1.0850-60 (1.23BLN), 1.0875-80 (547M), 1.0885-90 (1.9BLN)

  • 1.0895-00 (875M), 1.0915-25 (2.0BLN)

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 07 - 10:15 PM
  • Trades 0.35% lower at the base of a busy 0.6656-0.6681 range on FX matching

  • A modest correction of Thursday's 1.7% bounce- steady e-minis and UST yields

  • Oil and metals are a touch softer, Nikkei +0.35%, AsiaxJP +0.65%

  • USD and risk appetite to lead AUD offshore - light EZ and US data schedule

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages conflict, 21-day Bolli bands contract

  • Daily momentum studies edge higher - signals show a modest topside bias

  • The close above 0.6640 21 DMA targets a test of the 0.6728 0.5% Sep/Nov fall

  • Thursday's 0.6565 base and this week's 0.6513 low are initial supports

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 07 - 10:05 PM
  • Off 0.1% in a 1.2965-1.2988 range, busy early then quiet on FX Matching

  • Low key end to the week in Asia after a hectic period of major event risk

  • The UK's jobs market showed further signs of cooling in September

  • There is no UK data today, so risk appetite and the USD to lead sterling

  • Charts - daily momentum studies rise, 21-day Bollinger bands gently contract

  • 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages coil - signals show no real bias

  • Thursday's 1.2877 low then this week's 1.2835 base are initial supports

  • Last week's 1.3043 high capped - 1.3103 Oct 15 top is next resistance

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 07 - 08:00 PM
  • Off 0.2% - a modest correction so far of Thursday's 1.7% jump

  • Asia takes the positive lead from Wall Street, Nikkei +0.8%, AsiaxJP +0.4%

  • Treasury yields and e-minis are little changed, commodities quiet so far

  • After a volatile week full of event risk, Asia may cruise into the weekend

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages conflict, 21-day Bolli bands slip

  • Daily momentum studies edge higher - signals show a modest topside bias

  • Close above 0.6640 21 DMA targets a test of the 0.6725 0.5% Sep/Nov fall

  • Thursday's 0.6565 base and this week's 0.6513 low are initial supports

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 07 - 06:45 PM
  • Steady after closing up 0.7% with the USD 0.75% lower and UST yields fell

  • Euro zone retail sales outperformed expectations - good news for EZ economy

  • There is no tier 1 EZ data or ECB events, so the USD to lead EUR/USD

  • Charts - negative daily momentum studies, 21-day Bollinger bands slip

  • 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages edge lower, signals retain a bearish setup

  • 1.0827/40 5, 10 & 21 DMAs then this week's 1.0937 high are first resistance

  • Thursday's 1.0713 low then Wednesday's 1.0682 base are the initial support

  • 1.0800 - 1.849 BLN strikes may act as a magnet in Asia

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Andrew M Spencer  —  Nov 07 - 06:40 PM
  • Off 0.05% after jumping 1.7% with the USD off 0.75% and softer UST yields

  • Commodities climbed - U.S. copper closed up 4.5% on China stimulus optimism

  • There is no significant Aus data or RBA events, so risk and USD lead AUD

  • It was a hectic week for event risk - Asia may consolidate into the weekend

  • Charts; 5, 10 & 21-day moving averages conflict, 21-day Bolli bands contract

  • Daily momentum studies edge higher - signals show a modest topside bias

  • Close above 0.6642 21 DMA targets a test of the 0.6722 high on Oct 21st

  • Thursday's 0.6565 base and this week's 0.6513 low are initial supports

    For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 07 - 02:49 PM

Synopsis:

CIBC notes that the November FOMC meeting delivered the expected 25bps rate cut, with minor adjustments to the statement. The Fed removed language indicating "greater confidence" in inflation reaching target, aligning with today’s smaller rate cut. The statement retained the view of balanced risks, acknowledging recent election-related uncertainties and mixed economic data.

Key Points:

  • Expected Rate Cut: The Fed reduced the funds rate by 25bps, as anticipated, with no major changes in the meeting outcome.
  • Statement Adjustments: The FOMC omitted its previous "greater confidence" language on inflation, consistent with a more cautious approach following September's larger rate move.
  • Economic and Market Uncertainties: Since September, election results and recent data have added economic uncertainty, while GDP revisions indicate a stronger underlying growth trend and a gradually cooling labor market.

Conclusion:

CIBC describes the November FOMC as straightforward, with the Fed maintaining its balanced view of risks and responding to evolving economic conditions with a modest rate cut. The statement’s tone reflects caution amid recent uncertainties, yet it leaves the door open for further adjustments based on upcoming data.

Source:
CIBC Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Nov 07 - 02:35 PM
  • GBP$ firm in NorAm afternoon, -0.7% at 1.2972; Thursday range 1.3009-1.2880

  • Pair a tad soft after Fed -25bp cut; statement tipped slightly hawkish

  • Fed cuts rates, notes labor market easing and solid economic growth

  • BoE took similar tack w/their 25bp cut; Bailey sees gradual policy shift

  • BoE brightens sterling outlook a day after US election-fueled drubbing

  • Data dependent into YE; IRPR indicates 20% odds for BoE cut

  • CME Click here tool pricing 63% odds for -25bp on Dec 18

  • GBP$ supt 1.2956 post-Fed low/200-HMA, 1.2877 Thursday low

  • Res 1.2990 the 100-DMA, 1.3050 dly cloud base, 1.3135 50% of 1.3434-1.2835

  • A close above 1.3135, 50% Fib, shifts momentum for GBP bulls for test of Oct highs

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 07 - 02:15 PM
  • NY opened near 0.6630 after 0.6565 traded in Asia, rally extended 0.66875

  • US yield US2YT=RR drops drove broad based US$ selling, lifted AUD/USD

  • USD/CNH drop to 7.1420 & equity ESv1 gains reinforced US$ selling theme

  • Commodity HGv1, XAU= gains helped to buoy the Australian dollar

  • Pair slipped off the high, sat near 0.6670 into the Fed statement

  • Fed cut by 25bps , US$ firmed after statement, AUD/USD dipped below 0.6660

  • Pair remained up +1.37% which helped technicals lean bullish

  • RSIs imply upward momentum & AUD/USD held above 21-DMA, daily cloud base

  • November University of Michigan survey is a key data risk Friday

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 07 - 01:00 PM

Synopsis:

Following Trump’s election win, ING notes that while the immediate risk has passed, investors are now challenged with positioning as they await more details on Trump’s policy agenda, which may not materialize until late 2025. In the interim, ING expects the DXY to consolidate in the 104.50-105.50 range as markets assess upcoming appointments and potential economic policy signals.

Key Points:

  • Policy Uncertainty Ahead: Trump’s policy focus remains unclear and may not fully unfold until late 2025, leaving investors to monitor his social media posts and key administration appointments for hints on economic direction.
  • DXY Consolidation Expected: ING anticipates a period of consolidation in the DXY index between 104.50 and 105.50, as recent USD gains pause while investors gauge future drivers.
  • No Immediate USD Reversal: ING sees limited reason for the dollar to retrace recent gains significantly, as markets await clearer policy guidance.

Conclusion:

With Trump’s policy agenda likely delayed, ING expects FX investors to face positioning challenges, leading to DXY consolidation in the 104.50-105.50 range. The USD is expected to retain recent strength in the short term as markets await further direction from policy developments and key administration appointments.

Source:
ING Research/Market Commentary
By Christopher Romano  —  Nov 07 - 11:35 AM
  • Ether rallied above 2820/40 resistance then hit a 3-month high of 2881.16

  • Longs face another hurdle, 38.2% Fib of 4093.70-2149.53 drop sits at 2982.20

  • Break of that Fib possible; rising daily, monthly RSIs imply upward momentum

  • Should that Fibo break the 50% Fibo of the same drop, August high in focus

  • If stocks ESv1, gold XAU= rally more & US$ =USD sinks Ether may rally

  • Fed meeting risk looms, 25bps cut expected; Powell's presser is key

  • For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 07 - 11:30 AM

Synopsis:

HSBC anticipates that Fed Chair Powell will avoid detailed comments on the implications of the US election for monetary policy at today’s FOMC meeting. Instead, he is expected to reiterate a data-dependent approach, with the Fed likely delivering a 25bps rate cut and minor statement adjustments reflecting recent labor market data. The market focus will then shift to Powell’s tone on a possible December cut, though resilient economic indicators leave room for a pause.

Key Points:

  • Election Impact Likely Deferred: Powell is expected to deflect questions on the election outcome’s impact on policy, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach on the new administration’s policies.
  • Data-Dependent Guidance: Powell is likely to maintain guidance based on incoming data, reiterating that the Fed’s stance will adjust to inflation and labor market trends.
  • November Rate Cut and Statement Changes: HSBC expects a 25bps cut, with slight statement updates reflecting labor market stability.
  • December Cut Uncertainty: While the market prices a 75% probability for a December cut, resilient economic growth and stable unemployment may increase the likelihood of a pause.

Conclusion:

HSBC forecasts a 25bps rate cut today with limited Fed commentary on election impacts. Powell is expected to emphasize data-dependency, leaving the door open for a December cut or potential pause depending on continued economic resilience. This measured approach keeps market attention on December’s outlook without signaling a major policy shift.

Source:
HSBC Research/Market Commentary
By Paul Spirgel  —  Nov 07 - 10:10 AM

Sterling could be in for more gains after traders focused on BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's indication of a gradual approach to future easing after the bank delivered an as expected 25bp cut on Thursday.

Sterling bulls pushed cable to a session high of 1.2996 after the BoE voted 8-1 to cut rates, brightening prospects for more gains a day after the U.S. election results appeared to dim the pound's outlook.

Following the UK budget, GBP/USD slid to 1.2845, and during the post-election kerfuffle, it dipped to 1.2835 before rebounding to current levels.

With support holding in the mid-1.28s, a path may be clearing for GBP/USD to return to trading on rate differentials, which now favor further GBP strength.

The BoE rhetoric suggests sterling rates may land at a higher level by year-end 2025 than previously expected, as indicated by LSEG’s IRPR, which should lift GBP/USD.

The fly in the ointment for bulls may be the Fed.
If the U.S. central bank were to temper current rate-cut expectations owing to political concerns, sterling's rate advantage may diminish.

For now, GBP/USD finds resistance near its daily cloud base by 1.3050 and more significantly 1.3135, the 50% Fib of 1.3434-1.2835.

A close above 1.3135 may shift momentum to bulls for a test of early October highs by 1.33.

For more click on FXBUZ

Source:
Refinitiv IFR Research/Market Commentary
By eFXdata  —  Nov 07 - 10:00 AM

Synopsis:

Credit Agricole anticipates that today’s FOMC meeting will deliver a 25bps rate cut, with forward guidance remaining data-dependent. While the ‘Trump trade’ has driven USD strength on expectations of fiscal stimulus and trade policies, the Fed is unlikely to make significant adjustments to policy guidance immediately, which could prompt a temporary pullback in USD positions.

Key Points:

  • Expected Rate Cut: Credit Agricole expects the FOMC to cut rates by 25bps, with guidance indicating further easing as warranted by economic data.
  • Data-Dependent Forward Guidance: The Fed’s approach will reflect cooling in the labor market and persistent core inflation, acknowledging recent resilience in the US economy.
  • Market Expectations on ‘Trump Trade’: Fixed income markets are pricing in fiscal stimulus and tariffs under Trump’s administration, supporting higher growth and inflation in 2025, which has bolstered the USD.
  • Risk of Limited Validation: Credit Agricole suggests it’s too early for the Fed to fully endorse the ‘Trump trade,’ and a more cautious tone could trigger profit-taking on recent USD gains.

Conclusion:

Credit Agricole expects a 25bps cut and cautious Fed guidance today, unlikely to fully align with aggressive market expectations of Trump-driven stimulus. This stance may temper USD strength in the near term, as FX investors react to the Fed’s gradual approach to shifting economic dynamics.

Source:
MUFG Research/Market Commentary
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