Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for tonight's RBNZ policy meeting.
"We expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR rate by 25bp to 0.50% making it the first G10 central bank to raise rates during the pandemic. While there are some calls for a 50bp rate hike (the market was pricing a decent chance of one until recently), we believe the RBNZ will be m ore conservative with the start of its rate hiking cycle. Indeed, the growth rates of NZ’s two largest trading partners have slowed significantly. An outbreak of the delta variant of the virus is weighing on Australian growth and Chinese growth is leveling off after a strong recovery," CACIB notes.
"The central bank will likely forecast a 50% chance of another 25bp rate hike by year end and outline that the chance of another rate hike will rest heavily on NZ staying Covid free. This outlook for the OCR would be a little disappointing for the market and weigh on the NZD," CACIB adds.