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June 23 (Reuters) - USD/JPY appears to have found an
equilibrium on the 161 handle as was the case on 159 and 160,
where the threat of Japanese FX intervention previously saw the
pair pause. Intervention did not materialise then, and with
broad U.S. dollar strength, USD/JPY has pushed up to current
levels.
Admittedly the pair has risen on more than USD strength. A Bank
of Japan viewed as behind the curve , re-widening of
short-end Japanese government bond and U.S. Treasury yield
differentials, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and Japan's
reliance on energy and other commodity imports helped .
In addition to this, USD demand from Japanese importers has been
almost constant. Foreign investors purchasing Japanese equities
and related currency hedges have added to this demand.
Barring fresh FX intervention, USD/JPY could head higher still.
A surge is likely if Japanese importer option barriers in the
162.00 area are taken out. More are expected above, likely at
each big figure higher and especially massive at the 165.00
strike.
With Japan's Ministry of Finance and the BOJ's currency desk
probably aware of these option knock-outs, Finance Minister
Satsuki Katayama's call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent may have been a discussion to prevent the yen from
weakening further , and .
Defence of these option barriers has temporarily capped USD/JPY
at Monday's 161.93 EBS high. Just above at 161.96 is the last
peak on July 3, 2024. Above 162.00 and 163.00, there are highs
of 163.36 and 164.74 dating back to December and November 1986,
respectively.
Related comments , , , .
USD/JPY daily:
Nikkei 225:
JGB-US Treasury 2-year interest rate differential:
(Haruya Ida is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own. Editing by Sonali Desai)